O
Oakleigh Cannons
Home
D
W
W
D
W
7W 3D 0L
▲ Improving
VS
—
11:15 am
—
Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne
A
Avondale
Away
L
L
W
W
W
6W 0D 4L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
72.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+7.5%
Value detected
Kelly %
27.4%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Over 1.5 Goals90%
Oakleigh Cannons Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale
Competition: Australia NPL Victoria
Date: Friday, 10th July 2026
KO: 11:15 am
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.38
Confidence: 80%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: Oakleigh Cannons Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Oakleigh Cannons
3
Draws
4
Avondale
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Oakleigh Cannons
Metric
Avondale
2.2
Goals For / Game
3.5
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-3-0
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
O0
0-0
2.2%
0-1
4.5%
0-2
4.5%
0-3
3.0%
0-4
1.5%
0-5
0.6%
O1
1-0
4.0%
1-1
8.1%
1-2
8.1%
1-3
5.4%
1-4
2.7%
1-5
1.1%
O2
2-0
3.6%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.3%
2-3
4.8%
2-4
2.4%
2-5
1.0%
O3
3-0
2.2%
3-1
4.4%
3-2
4.4%
3-3
2.9%
3-4
1.5%
3-5
0.6%
O4
4-0
1.0%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
2.0%
4-3
1.3%
4-4
0.7%
4-5
0.3%
O5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.7%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-1(8.1%)
1-2(8.1%)
2-1(7.3%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
O=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
22%
Home Win & BTTS No
26%
Draw & BTTS Yes
5%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Away Win & BTTS No
23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
31%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
7%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
27%
Away Win & Under 2.5
15%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Avondale FC1
Oakleigh Cannons1
Avondale FC3
Oakleigh Cannons0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Avondale FC2
Avondale FC0
Oakleigh Cannons3
Avondale FC3
Oakleigh Cannons3
Oakleigh Cannons1
Avondale FC2
Oakleigh Cannons0
Avondale FC0
Avondale FC4
Oakleigh Cannons2
Avondale FC1
Oakleigh Cannons4
Oakleigh Cannons6
Avondale FC2
Recent Form
Oakleigh Cannons
George Cross1
Oakleigh Cannons1
Heidelberg Utd0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Oakleigh Cannons3
Melbourne City U211
Oakleigh Cannons2
St Albans2
Altona Magic0
Oakleigh Cannons2
Preston Lions0
Oakleigh Cannons1
Dandenong City1
Oakleigh Cannons1
Oakleigh Cannons2
Dandenong Thunder0
Green Gully0
Oakleigh Cannons5
Oakleigh Cannons4
Bentleigh Greens0
Avondale
Avondale FC2
Preston Lions3
Dandenong City3
Avondale FC1
Avondale FC11
Dandenong Thunder0
Green Gully0
Avondale FC2
Avondale FC4
Bentleigh Greens0
South Melbourne0
Avondale FC4
Hume City3
Avondale FC0
Avondale FC5
Altona Magic1
Avondale FC5
George Cross2
Heidelberg Utd2
Avondale FC1
Oakleigh Cannons (Home)
Oakleigh Cannons3
Melbourne City U211
Oakleigh Cannons2
St Albans2
Oakleigh Cannons2
Dandenong Thunder0
Oakleigh Cannons4
Bentleigh Greens0
Oakleigh Cannons3
Hume City2
Oakleigh Cannons2
George Cross1
Oakleigh Cannons2
Heidelberg Utd3
Oakleigh Cannons3
Altona Magic1
Oakleigh Cannons1
Preston Lions3
Oakleigh Cannons1
Preston Lions2
Avondale (Away)
Dandenong City3
Avondale FC1
Green Gully0
Avondale FC2
South Melbourne0
Avondale FC4
Hume City3
Avondale FC0
Heidelberg Utd2
Avondale FC1
St Albans2
Avondale FC3
Preston Lions2
Avondale FC1
Dandenong Thunder0
Avondale FC1
Bentleigh Greens2
Avondale FC0
Canberra Croatia1
Avondale FC4
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 10th July 2026, Oakleigh Cannons host Avondale at Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne in Australia NPL Victoria. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Oakleigh Cannons arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Avondale are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Oakleigh Cannons, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Avondale's 4, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia NPL Victoria match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.38, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 11:15 am over at Jack Edwards Reserve (Melbourne.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Oakleigh Cannons vs Avondale?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Oakleigh Cannons's current form?
Oakleigh Cannons have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Avondale been performing recently?
Avondale have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Oakleigh Cannons lead with 3 wins versus Avondale's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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