WON Tip WON Palmeiras 4-1 Junior
P

Palmeiras

Home
W L D W D
5W 4D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
4-1
J
Junior
Away
W W D D W
5W 3D 2L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 28th May 2026
1
Backing Palmeiras to win
Palmeiras 50%
Draw 30%
Junior 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.8% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -17.8% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Palmeiras to win
1.32
Under 2.5 Goals70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Palmeiras vs Junior Competition: Copa Libertadores Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Palmeiras to win) Odds: 1.32 Confidence: 58% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Junior
5
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Palmeiras
Metric
Junior
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-4-1
W — D — L
5-3-2
Win Rate
50%
50%
2.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
P0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.9%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
P4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.9%) 2-1(9.1%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Palmeiras Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Junior Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Palmeiras
Overall
6.2
Scoring
5.7
Defence
8.0
Junior
Overall
5.9
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.04.26COP
Junior1
Palmeiras1
11.04.19COP
Palmeiras3
Junior0
07.03.19COP
Junior0
Palmeiras2
17.05.18COP
Palmeiras3
Junior1
02.03.18COP
Junior0
Palmeiras3
Recent Form
Palmeiras
24.05.26SA
Flamengo RJ0
Palmeiras3
W
21.05.26COP
Palmeiras0
Cerro Porteno1
L
17.05.26SA
Palmeiras1
Cruzeiro1
D
14.05.26COP
Jacuipense1
Palmeiras4
W
10.05.26SA
Remo1
Palmeiras1
D
05.05.26COP
Sporting Cristal0
Palmeiras2
W
02.05.26SA
Palmeiras1
Santos1
D
30.04.26COP
Cerro Porteno1
Palmeiras1
D
26.04.26SA
Bragantino0
Palmeiras1
W
23.04.26COP
Palmeiras3
Jacuipense0
W
Junior
24.05.26PA
Junior1
Santa Fe0
W
21.05.26COP
Junior3
Sporting Cristal2
W
17.05.26PA
Santa Fe1
Junior1
D
14.05.26PA
Junior2
Once Caldas2
D
11.05.26PA
Once Caldas0
Junior1
W
08.05.26COP
Junior0
Cerro Porteno1
L
03.05.26PA
Junior4
Dep. Pasto3
W
29.04.26COP
Sporting Cristal2
Junior0
L
24.04.26PA
Cucuta1
Junior1
D
20.04.26PA
Junior2
Llaneros0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Palmeiras host Junior in Copa Libertadores. We recommend Palmeiras to win as the standout selection.

Palmeiras arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Junior are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 3D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Palmeiras, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Junior's 0, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: palmeiras to win at odds of 1.32 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Copa Libertadores match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.32. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Palmeiras vs Junior?
Our selection is 1 — Palmeiras to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Palmeiras's current form?
Palmeiras have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Junior been performing recently?
Junior have recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Palmeiras lead with 4 wins versus Junior's 0, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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