Q
Queen of South
Home
W
L
L
L
L
3W 3D 2L
→ Steady
VS
—
7:45 pm
—
Palmerston Park (Dumfries)
A
Aberdeen
Away
W
W
W
L
L
5W 1D 4L
→ Steady
Queen of South
20%
Draw
30%
Aberdeen
50%
H Fair Odds
5
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
2
Implied Prob
75.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-22.2%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Aberdeen to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals83%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Queen of South vs Aberdeen
Competition: Scotland League Cup
Date: Wednesday, 22nd July 2026
KO: 7:45 pm
Pick: 2 (Aberdeen to win)
Odds: 1.33
Confidence: 53%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (83%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Queen of South
2
Draws
5
Aberdeen
8
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
75%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Aberdeen won 5 of 8 meetings.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Queen of South
Metric
Aberdeen
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.6
1
Goals Against / Game
1.5
25%
Clean Sheets
40%
3-3-2
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
83%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
52%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
Q0
0-0
5.2%
0-1
6.8%
0-2
4.4%
0-3
1.9%
0-4
0.6%
0-5
0.2%
Q1
1-0
8.6%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
7.3%
1-3
3.2%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
Q2
2-0
7.1%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
2.6%
2-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
Q3
3-0
3.9%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
3.3%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
Q4
4-0
1.6%
4-1
2.1%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
Q5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-2(7.3%)
0-1(6.8%)
0-2(4.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
Q=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Queen of South Win
5
20%
Draw
3.33
30%
Aberdeen Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
10%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Away Win & BTTS No
23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
15%
Home Win & Under 2.5
20%
Draw & Over 2.5
9%
Draw & Under 2.5
11%
Away Win & Over 2.5
20%
Away Win & Under 2.5
25%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Queen of South0
Aberdeen3
Aberdeen4
Queen of South1
Queen of South1
Aberdeen2
Aberdeen1
Queen of South1
Queen of South4
Aberdeen3
Aberdeen4
Queen of South1
Queen of South0
Aberdeen0
Queen of South1
Aberdeen2
Recent Form
Queen of South
Brora Rangers0
Queen of South3
Queen of South1
Crusaders2
Queen of South0
Connahs Q.1
Queen of South1
Stenhousemuir1
Alloa1
Queen of South4
Queen of South2
Montrose2
Peterhead1
Queen of South1
Queen of South2
Cove Rangers0
Aberdeen
Aberdeen2
Queen’s Park1
Brora Rangers0
Aberdeen2
Linfield0
Aberdeen2
Aberdeen3
Ross County6
Twente1
Aberdeen0
Cove Rangers0
Aberdeen1
Dundee FC3
Aberdeen2
Aberdeen0
St. Mirren2
Aberdeen2
Dundee Utd0
Livingston2
Aberdeen2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Wednesday, 22nd July 2026, Queen of South host Aberdeen at Palmerston Park (Dumfries) in Scotland League Cup. We recommend Aberdeen to win as the standout selection.
Queen of South arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 8 outings.
Aberdeen are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 5W 1D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Queen of South, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Aberdeen's 5, with 2 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 75% of those meetings.
Our verdict: aberdeen to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Scotland League Cup match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 2 at @1.33, sitting at roughly 20,30,50% in our model. The match gets going at 7:45 pm over at Palmerston Park (Dumfries).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Queen of South vs Aberdeen?
Our selection is 2 — Aberdeen to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Queen of South's current form?
Queen of South have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 8 matches.
How has Aberdeen been performing recently?
Aberdeen have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Queen of South lead with 1 wins versus Aberdeen's 5, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 75%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.