Q
Queensland Lions
Home
W
W
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
10:30 am
—
Lions Stadium (Brisbane)
O
Olympic FC
Away
W
L
L
L
L
3W 0D 7L
▲ Improving
Queensland Lions
50%
Draw
30%
Olympic FC
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
72.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-5.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Queensland Lions to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals85%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Queensland Lions vs Olympic FC
Competition: Australia NPL Queensland
Date: Saturday, 4th July 2026
KO: 10:30 am
Pick: 1 (Queensland Lions to win)
Odds: 1.38
Confidence: 67%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (85%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
8
Queensland Lions
0
Draws
2
Olympic FC
10
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Queensland Lions won 8 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Queensland Lions
Metric
Olympic FC
3.2
Goals For / Game
2
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.4
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
4.4
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
Q0
0-0
1.2%
0-1
2.0%
0-2
1.6%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
Q1
1-0
3.4%
1-1
5.5%
1-2
4.4%
1-3
2.4%
1-4
0.9%
1-5
0.3%
Q2
2-0
4.8%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.2%
2-3
3.3%
2-4
1.3%
2-5
0.4%
Q3
3-0
4.5%
3-1
7.2%
3-2
5.8%
3-3
3.1%
3-4
1.2%
3-5
0.4%
Q4
4-0
3.1%
4-1
5.0%
4-2
4.0%
4-3
2.2%
4-4
0.9%
4-5
0.3%
Q5
5-0
1.8%
5-1
2.8%
5-2
2.3%
5-3
1.2%
5-4
0.5%
5-5
0.2%
Top Scores
2-1(7.7%)
3-1(7.2%)
3-2(5.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
Q=Home goals ↓ O=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Queensland Lions Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Olympic FC Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
53%
Home Win & BTTS No
18%
Draw & BTTS Yes
3%
Draw & BTTS No
1%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Away Win & BTTS No
7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
60%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
3%
Draw & Under 2.5
1%
Away Win & Over 2.5
22%
Away Win & Under 2.5
4%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Olympic FC2
Queensland Lions1
Olympic FC0
Queensland Lions3
Queensland Lions2
Olympic FC1
Queensland Lions3
Olympic FC2
Olympic FC0
Queensland Lions2
Olympic FC0
Queensland Lions2
Queensland Lions2
Olympic FC1
Queensland Lions2
Olympic FC3
Olympic FC2
Queensland Lions3
Queensland Lions3
Olympic FC1
Recent Form
Queensland Lions
Queensland Lions6
Wynnum Wolves2
Queensland Lions2
Rochedale1
Brisbane City0
Queensland Lions4
Magic United3
Queensland Lions5
Brisbane Roar U231
Queensland Lions3
Queensland Lions2
Moreton City Excelsior0
Peninsula3
Queensland Lions2
Queensland Lions1
Gold Coast Utd0
Wynnum Wolves0
Queensland Lions5
Queensland Lions2
Brisbane City2
Olympic FC
Eastern Suburbs1
Olympic FC2
Olympic FC1
Peninsula3
Gold Coast Knights5
Olympic FC2
Olympic FC2
Brisbane City3
Wynnum Wolves2
Olympic FC1
Moreton City Excelsior4
Olympic FC3
Rochedale3
Olympic FC1
Olympic FC2
Magic United0
Brisbane Roar U231
Olympic FC5
Olympic FC1
Eastern Suburbs2
Queensland Lions (Home)
Queensland Lions6
Wynnum Wolves2
Queensland Lions2
Rochedale1
Queensland Lions2
Moreton City Excelsior0
Queensland Lions1
Gold Coast Utd0
Queensland Lions2
Brisbane City2
Queensland Lions4
Magic United0
Queensland Lions2
Gold Coast Knights2
Queensland Lions3
Peninsula0
Queensland Lions0
Eastern Suburbs1
Queensland Lions0
Moreton City Excelsior0
Olympic FC (Away)
Eastern Suburbs1
Olympic FC2
Gold Coast Knights5
Olympic FC2
Wynnum Wolves2
Olympic FC1
Moreton City Excelsior4
Olympic FC3
Rochedale3
Olympic FC1
Brisbane Roar U231
Olympic FC5
Brisbane City4
Olympic FC4
Peninsula1
Olympic FC1
Brisbane City2
Olympic FC3
Brisbane Roar U231
Olympic FC3
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 4th July 2026, Queensland Lions host Olympic FC at Lions Stadium (Brisbane) in Australia NPL Queensland. We recommend Queensland Lions to win as the standout selection.
Queensland Lions arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Olympic FC are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Queensland Lions, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Olympic FC's 2, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.
Our verdict: queensland lions to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Australia NPL Queensland match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 5 wins from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.38, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 10:30 am over at Lions Stadium (Brisbane).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Queensland Lions vs Olympic FC?
Our selection is 1 — Queensland Lions to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Queensland Lions's current form?
Queensland Lions have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Olympic FC been performing recently?
Olympic FC have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Queensland Lions lead with 8 wins versus Olympic FC's 2, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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