WON
Tip WON
Roma W 6-5 Parma W
R
Roma W
Home
W
W
W
L
W
7W 1D 2L
▼ Declining
VS
6-5
3:00 pm
Stadio Tre Fontane (Rome)
P
Parma W
Away
W
D
L
L
L
2W 2D 6L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
75.8%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-9.8%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Roma W
1
Draws
0
Parma W
4
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Roma W won 3 of the last 4 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Roma W
Metric
Parma W
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
R0
0-0
6.1%
0-1
6.7%
0-2
3.7%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
R1
1-0
10.3%
1-1
11.4%
1-2
6.3%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
R2
2-0
8.8%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
2.0%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
R3
3-0
5.0%
3-1
5.5%
3-2
3.0%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
R4
4-0
2.1%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
R5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(10.3%)
2-1(9.7%)
2-0(8.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
R=Home goals ↓ P=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
27%
Home Win & BTTS No
40%
Draw & BTTS Yes
6%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
8%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
40%
Home Win & Under 2.5
27%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
11%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Parma W3
AS Roma3
AS Roma W4
Parma0
Parma W2
AS Roma3
AS Roma W5
Parma0
Recent Form
Roma W
AS Roma W2
Servette Geneve FC W1
Como 1907 W0
AS Roma W4
AS Roma W2
Napoli W1
Chelsea W2
AS Roma W0
Juventus W2
AS Roma W5
AS Roma W4
AC Milan W2
AS Roma W3
Lazio W1
AS Roma W0
Barcelona W6
Sassuolo W1
AS Roma W3
Leuven W0
AS Roma W0
Parma W
Parma W1
Como W0
Sassuolo W0
Parma W0
Parma W1
Fiorentina W2
Inter W3
Parma W0
Parma W1
Ternana W2
Lazio W0
Parma W0
Arezzo W0
Parma W3
Napoli W1
Parma W0
Lazio W2
Parma W0
Parma W0
Inter W1
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Italian Serie A Women match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.32, sitting at roughly around 6 in 10 in our model. The match gets going at 3:00 pm over at Stadio Tre Fontane (Rome).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Roma W vs Parma W?
Our selection is 1 — Roma W to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Roma W's current form?
Roma W have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parma W been performing recently?
Parma W have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Roma W lead with 3 wins versus Parma W's 0, with 1 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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