LOST Tip LOST Sabah Baku 0-1 Kapaz
S

Sabah Baku

Home
W W W W D
8W 2D 0L ▲ Improving
VS
0-1
K
Kapaz
Away
W L L L L
3W 2D 5L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 8th May 2026
1
Backing Sabah Baku to win
Sabah Baku 60%
Draw 20%
Kapaz 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -10.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Sabah Baku to win
1.26
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Sabah Baku vs Kapaz Competition: Azerbaijan Premier League Date: Friday, 8th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Sabah Baku to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 69% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Sabah Baku
1
Draws
2
Kapaz
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Sabah Baku won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sabah Baku
Metric
Kapaz
3.1
Goals For / Game
1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-2-0
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
80%
30%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
S0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 8.9%
1-1 8.5%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 10.3%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 7.9%
3-1 7.5%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 4.5%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 2.1%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(10.3%) 2-1(9.7%) 1-0(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sabah Baku Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Kapaz Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Sabah Baku
Overall
8.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.0
Kapaz
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.02.26PL
Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
09.11.25PL
Kapaz1
Sabah Baku3
06.04.25PL
Sabah Baku0
Kapaz1
31.01.25PL
Kapaz3
Sabah Baku2
09.11.24PL
Sabah Baku2
Kapaz2
31.08.24PL
Kapaz2
Sabah Baku3
21.04.24PL
Kapaz1
Sabah Baku2
17.02.24PL
Sabah Baku3
Kapaz2
18.12.23CUP
Kapaz3
Sabah Baku4
03.12.23PL
Kapaz0
Sabah Baku2
Recent Form
Sabah Baku
03.05.26PL
Shamakhi0
Sabah Baku3
W
27.04.26PL
Sabah Baku2
Karvan0
W
22.04.26CUP
Sabah Baku2
Qarabag1
W
18.04.26PL
Qarabag0
Sabah Baku1
W
11.04.26PL
Sabah Baku2
Zira2
D
07.04.26PL
Araz2
Sabah Baku4
W
03.04.26CUP
Qarabag2
Sabah Baku2
D
19.03.26PL
Sabah Baku3
Sumqayit1
W
14.03.26PL
Imisli FK0
Sabah Baku5
W
10.03.26PL
Sabah Baku7
Gabala1
W
Kapaz
02.05.26PL
Kapaz2
Sumqayit1
W
26.04.26PL
Shamakhi2
Kapaz0
L
19.04.26PL
Kapaz0
Imisli FK1
L
10.04.26PL
Karvan4
Kapaz1
L
05.04.26PL
Kapaz0
Gabala2
L
20.03.26PL
Kapaz1
Qarabag0
W
15.03.26PL
Kapaz1
Turan Tovuz1
D
09.03.26PL
Zira2
Kapaz2
D
05.03.26CUP
Kapaz0
Turan Tovuz2
L
27.02.26PL
Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 8th May 2026, Sabah Baku host Kapaz in Azerbaijan Premier League. We recommend Sabah Baku to win as the standout selection.

Sabah Baku arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kapaz are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sabah Baku, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Kapaz's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sabah baku to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan Premier League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.26. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabah Baku vs Kapaz?
Our selection is 1 — Sabah Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 69%.
What is Sabah Baku's current form?
Sabah Baku have won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kapaz been performing recently?
Kapaz have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabah Baku lead with 7 wins versus Kapaz's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.