WON Tip WON Sao Paulo 2-0 Boston River
S

Sao Paulo

Home
D D L L L
2W 5D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
2-0
B
Boston River
Away
L W W L L
4W 0D 6L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 26th May 2026
1
Backing Sao Paulo to win
Sao Paulo 60%
Draw 20%
Boston River 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 81.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -28.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Sao Paulo
0
Draws
0
Boston River
1
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Sao Paulo won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Sao Paulo
Metric
Boston River
1
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
2-5-3
W — D — L
4-0-6
Win Rate
20%
40%
2.8
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 7.9%
0-2 5.1%
0-3 2.2%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
S1
1-0 9.1%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 7.7%
1-3 3.3%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
S2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 8.9%
2-2 5.8%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
S3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 4.5%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 1.3%
4-1 1.7%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.1%) 2-1(8.9%) 2-0(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sao Paulo Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Boston River Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Sao Paulo
Overall
3.5
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
Boston River
Overall
4.0
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 28%
Away Win & BTTS No 19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 11%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 21%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
08.04.26COP
Boston River0
Sao Paulo1
Recent Form
Sao Paulo
23.05.26SA
Sao Paulo1
Botafogo RJ1
D
20.05.26COP
Sao Paulo1
Millonarios1
D
16.05.26SA
Fluminense2
Sao Paulo1
L
13.05.26COP
Juventude3
Sao Paulo1
L
10.05.26SA
Corinthians3
Sao Paulo2
L
07.05.26COP
O’Higgins0
Sao Paulo0
D
03.05.26SA
Sao Paulo2
Bahia2
D
29.04.26COP
Millonarios0
Sao Paulo0
D
26.04.26SA
Sao Paulo1
Mirassol0
W
21.04.26COP
Sao Paulo1
Juventude0
W
Boston River
23.05.26LU
Cerro Largo3
Boston River0
L
20.05.26COP
Boston River3
O’Higgins2
W
16.05.26LU
Boston River4
CA Cerro1
W
11.05.26LU
Maldonado2
Boston River1
L
07.05.26COP
Boston River2
Millonarios4
L
03.05.26LU
Boston River2
Central Esp.1
W
29.04.26COP
O’Higgins2
Boston River0
L
24.04.26LU
Montevideo City4
Boston River1
L
20.04.26LU
Boston River1
Cerro Largo0
W
16.04.26COP
Millonarios1
Boston River0
L
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Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 26th May 2026, Sao Paulo host Boston River in Copa Sudamericana. We recommend Sao Paulo to win as the standout selection.

Sao Paulo arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Boston River are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sao Paulo, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Boston River's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sao paulo to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Copa Sudamericana match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.23. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sao Paulo vs Boston River?
Our selection is 1 — Sao Paulo to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Sao Paulo's current form?
Sao Paulo have won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Boston River been performing recently?
Boston River have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sao Paulo lead with 1 wins versus Boston River's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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