S
St Patricks
Home
L
D
W
L
W
4W 2D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
7:45 pm
—
Richmond Park (Dublin)
W
Wexford
Away
D
L
D
D
L
1W 3D 6L
▼ Declining
St Patricks
50%
Draw
30%
Wexford
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
89.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-33.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
6
St Patricks
1
Draws
0
Wexford
7
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
St Patricks won 6 of the last 7 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
St Patricks
Metric
Wexford
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.8
1
Goals Against / Game
1.7
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-2-4
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
W0
W1
W2
W3
W4
W5
S0
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.8%
0-2
3.5%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
S1
1-0
13.4%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
5.4%
1-3
1.6%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
S2
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
4.2%
2-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
S3
3-0
5.4%
3-1
4.8%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
S4
4-0
2.1%
4-1
1.9%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
S5
5-0
0.6%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(13.4%)
2-0(10.4%)
2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
S=Home goals ↓ W=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
St Patricks Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Wexford Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
21%
Home Win & BTTS No
32%
Draw & BTTS Yes
13%
Draw & BTTS No
20%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
6%
Away Win & BTTS No
8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
24%
Home Win & Under 2.5
29%
Draw & Over 2.5
15%
Draw & Under 2.5
18%
Away Win & Over 2.5
6%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Wexford1
St. Patricks1
St. Patricks3
Wexford0
Wexford0
St. Patricks3
St. Patricks4
Wexford1
Wexford0
St. Patricks1
St. Patricks4
Wexford0
Wexford1
St. Patricks3
Recent Form
St Patricks
Doncaster4
St. Patricks2
Waterford1
St. Patricks1
St. Patricks3
Galway0
Bohemians2
St. Patricks0
St. Patricks2
Sligo Rovers0
St. Patricks2
Drogheda0
Shamrock Rovers1
St. Patricks0
Derry City0
St. Patricks0
St. Patricks0
Shelbourne1
St. Patricks4
Waterford1
Wexford
Wexford2
Kerry2
Finn Harps1
Wexford0
Wexford0
Treaty United0
Athlone2
Wexford2
Wexford0
Cork City2
Bray4
Wexford0
Wexford2
UC Dublin1
Kerry2
Wexford1
Wexford1
Longford2
Treaty United1
Wexford0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Friday, 17th July 2026, St Patricks host Wexford at Richmond Park (Dublin) in Ireland FA Cup. We recommend St Patricks to win as the standout selection.
St Patricks arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Wexford are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour St Patricks, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Wexford's 0, with 1 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 43% of those meetings.
Our verdict: st patricks to win at odds of 1.12 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Ireland FA Cup match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.12, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 7:45 pm over at Richmond Park (Dublin).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for St Patricks vs Wexford?
Our selection is 1 — St Patricks to win, priced at approximately 1.12. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is St Patricks's current form?
St Patricks have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Wexford been performing recently?
Wexford have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
St Patricks lead with 6 wins versus Wexford's 0, with 1 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 43%.
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