U
U Catolica
Home
L
W
W
D
L
4W 1D 5L
▲ Improving
VS
—
10:30 am
—
Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)
M
Mushuc Runa
Away
L
D
D
L
L
3W 2D 5L
▲ Improving
Implied Prob
88.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-8.5%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
5
U Catolica
3
Draws
2
Mushuc Runa
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Insufficient H2H data.
Stats Duel
Comparison
U Catolica
Metric
Mushuc Runa
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.3
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-1-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
U0
0-0
6.4%
0-1
8.0%
0-2
5.0%
0-3
2.1%
0-4
0.7%
0-5
0.2%
U1
1-0
9.6%
1-1
12.0%
1-2
7.5%
1-3
3.1%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.2%
U2
2-0
7.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-2
5.6%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
U3
3-0
3.6%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
2.8%
3-3
1.2%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
U4
4-0
1.4%
4-1
1.7%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
U5
5-0
0.4%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(12.0%)
1-0(9.6%)
2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
U=Home goals ↓ M=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
24%
Home Win & BTTS No
24%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Away Win & BTTS No
18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
28%
Home Win & Under 2.5
19%
Draw & Over 2.5
11%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
21%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Mushuc Runa0
U. Catolica0
Mushuc Runa1
U. Catolica1
U. Catolica1
Mushuc Runa1
U. Catolica5
Mushuc Runa1
Mushuc Runa2
U. Catolica1
Mushuc Runa0
U. Catolica2
U. Catolica3
Mushuc Runa2
U. Catolica2
Mushuc Runa1
Mushuc Runa1
U. Catolica2
U. Catolica0
Mushuc Runa1
Recent Form
U Catolica
Emelec1
U. Catolica0
EL Nacional1
U. Catolica4
Orense1
U. Catolica2
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
Aucas2
U. Catolica1
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
Manta1
U. Catolica0
U. Catolica4
Macara0
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
Mushuc Runa
Gualaceo1
Mushuc Runa0
Mushuc Runa0
Aucas0
Mushuc Runa2
Guayaquil City2
Leones del Norte3
Mushuc Runa1
Mushuc Runa1
LDU Quito3
Delfin1
Mushuc Runa0
Mushuc Runa4
Dep. Cuenca1
Barcelona SC2
Mushuc Runa1
Mushuc Runa1
Tecnico U.0
Mushuc Runa1
Manta0
U Catolica (Home)
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
U. Catolica4
Macara0
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
U. Catolica1
Emelec1
U. Catolica4
Guayaquil City1
U. Catolica1
Dep. Cuenca0
U. Catolica3
Leones del Norte0
Mushuc Runa (Away)
U. Catolica2
Delfin2
U. Catolica0
Ind. del Valle3
U. Catolica2
Ind. del Valle3
U. Catolica4
Macara0
U. Catolica2
Libertad0
U. Catolica1
Emelec1
U. Catolica4
Guayaquil City1
U. Catolica1
Dep. Cuenca0
U. Catolica3
Leones del Norte0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 6th July 2026, U Catolica host Mushuc Runa at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito) in Ecuador Liga Pro. We recommend U Catolica to win or draw as the standout selection.
U Catolica arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Mushuc Runa are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour U Catolica, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Mushuc Runa's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.
Our verdict: u catolica to win or draw at odds of 1.13 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Ecuador Liga Pro match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1X at @1.13, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 10:30 am over at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for U Catolica vs Mushuc Runa?
Our selection is 1X — U Catolica to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.13. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is U Catolica's current form?
U Catolica have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mushuc Runa been performing recently?
Mushuc Runa have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
U Catolica lead with 5 wins versus Mushuc Runa's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.