U
USA
Home
W
L
W
W
L
6W 0D 4L
▲ Improving
VS
—
1:00 am
—
Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)
B
Belgium
Away
W
W
D
D
W
6W 4D 0L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
85.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+1.5%
Value detected
Kelly %
10.5%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.17
Over 1.5 Goals95%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
USA vs Belgium
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Monday, 6th July 2026
KO: 1:00 am
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.17
Confidence: 87%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Head to Head
Record
1
USA
0
Draws
6
Belgium
7
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
43%
BTTS
57%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 71% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
USA
Metric
Belgium
2.3
Goals For / Game
3
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0.8
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-0-4
W — D — L
6-4-0
Win Rate
3.9
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
U0
0-0
2.0%
0-1
4.8%
0-2
5.6%
0-3
4.4%
0-4
2.6%
0-5
1.2%
U1
1-0
3.1%
1-1
7.4%
1-2
8.7%
1-3
6.8%
1-4
4.0%
1-5
1.9%
U2
2-0
2.4%
2-1
5.7%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
5.3%
2-4
3.1%
2-5
1.5%
U3
3-0
1.3%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
3.5%
3-3
2.7%
3-4
1.6%
3-5
0.8%
U4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
1.1%
4-2
1.3%
4-3
1.1%
4-4
0.6%
4-5
0.3%
U5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.2%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(8.7%)
1-1(7.4%)
1-3(6.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
U=Home goals ↓ B=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Home Win & BTTS No
15%
Draw & BTTS Yes
9%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
28%
Away Win & BTTS No
15%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
26%
Home Win & Under 2.5
17%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
26%
Away Win & Under 2.5
17%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
USA2
Belgium5
Belgium2
USA1
USA2
Belgium4
Belgium1
USA0
Belgium2
USA0
Belgium1
USA0
USA3
Belgium0
Recent Form
USA
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Turkey3
USA2
USA2
Australia0
USA4
Paraguay1
USA1
Germany2
USA3
Senegal2
USA0
Portugal2
USA2
Belgium5
USA5
Uruguay1
USA2
Paraguay1
Belgium
Belgium3
Senegal2
New Zealand1
Belgium5
Belgium0
Iran0
Belgium1
Egypt1
Belgium5
Tunisia0
Croatia0
Belgium2
Mexico1
Belgium1
USA2
Belgium5
Belgium7
Liechtenstein0
Kazakhstan1
Belgium1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Monday, 6th July 2026, USA host Belgium at Lumen Field (Seattle, WA) in World Cup 2026. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
USA arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Belgium are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 4D 0L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour USA, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Belgium's 6, with 0 draws from 7 encounters. Both teams have scored in 43% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.17 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.17, sitting at roughly 90% in our model. The match gets going at 1:00 am over at Lumen Field (Seattle, WA).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for USA vs Belgium?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is USA's current form?
USA have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Belgium been performing recently?
Belgium have recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
USA lead with 1 wins versus Belgium's 6, with 0 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 43%.
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