V
Vikingur Reykjavik
Home
D
L
D
L
W
4W 3D 3L
→ Steady
VS
—
6:30 pm
—
Víkingsvöllur (Reykjavík)
T
Thun
Away
L
W
L
L
W
3W 3D 4L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
68.5%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+13.5%
Value detected
Kelly %
42.9%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.46
Over 2.5 Goals75%
Over 1.5 Goals95%
BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Vikingur Reykjavik vs Thun
Competition: Europa League Qualifier
Date: Thursday, 13th August 2026
KO: 6:30 pm
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.46
Confidence: 82%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (95%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Vikingur Reykjavik
0
Draws
1
Thun
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Vikingur Reykjavik
Metric
Thun
1.8
Goals For / Game
2
1.7
Goals Against / Game
2.1
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
3.8
Avg Goals
95%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
V0
0-0
2.2%
0-1
4.1%
0-2
3.8%
0-3
2.4%
0-4
1.1%
0-5
0.4%
V1
1-0
4.4%
1-1
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-3
4.6%
1-4
2.1%
1-5
0.8%
V2
2-0
4.3%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.3%
2-3
4.5%
2-4
2.1%
2-5
0.8%
V3
3-0
2.8%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
4.7%
3-3
2.9%
3-4
1.4%
3-5
0.5%
V4
4-0
1.4%
4-1
2.5%
4-2
2.3%
4-3
1.4%
4-4
0.7%
4-5
0.2%
V5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
1.0%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.6%
5-4
0.3%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-1(8.1%)
2-1(7.9%)
1-2(7.5%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
V=Home goals ↓ T=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
30%
Home Win & BTTS No
10%
Draw & BTTS Yes
23%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Away Win & BTTS No
8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
30%
Home Win & Under 2.5
10%
Draw & Over 2.5
23%
Draw & Under 2.5
8%
Away Win & Over 2.5
23%
Away Win & Under 2.5
8%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Thun3
Vikingur Reykjavik0
Recent Form
Vikingur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik2
Vestmannaeyjar2
Thun3
Vikingur Reykjavik0
Akranes2
Vikingur Reykjavik2
H. Beer Sheva2
Vikingur Reykjavik0
Vikingur Reykjavik5
Keflavik1
Vikingur Reykjavik2
H. Beer Sheva1
Thor Akureyri2
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Gyor2
Vikingur Reykjavik2
Vikingur Reykjavik1
Gyor0
Vikingur Reykjavik3
KA Akureyri2
Thun
Basel4
Thun2
Thun3
Vikingur Reykjavik0
Thun0
Young Boys6
Din. Zagreb3
Thun2
Luzern1
Thun3
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Thun1
Mannheim2
Thun1
Elversberg1
Thun6
Xamax2
St. Gallen1
Thun1
Match Analysis
Writeup
Let me be honest with you about how this Europa League Qualifier match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 2.5 at @1.46, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 6:30 pm over at Víkingsvöllur (Reykjavík).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Vikingur Reykjavik vs Thun?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.46. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is Vikingur Reykjavik's current form?
Vikingur Reykjavik have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Thun been performing recently?
Thun have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Vikingur Reykjavik lead with 0 wins versus Thun's 1, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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