WON
Tip WON
Trefelin 4-0 Aberystwyth
T
Trefelin
Home
W
W
W
W
W
5W 0D 0L
→ Steady
VS
4-0
A
Aberystwyth
Away
L
L
W
W
W
3W 0D 2L
▲ Improving
Trefelin
50%
Draw
30%
Aberystwyth
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
75.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-7.2%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Trefelin to win
1.33
BTTS — No70%
Trefelin Clean Sheet80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Trefelin vs Aberystwyth
Competition: Wales Cymru South
Date: Saturday, 7th March 2026
Pick: 1 (Trefelin to win)
Odds: 1.33
Confidence: 68%
Also: BTTS — No (70%)
Also: Trefelin Clean Sheet (80%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Trefelin
0
Draws
0
Aberystwyth
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Trefelin won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Trefelin
Metric
Aberystwyth
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
0.2
Goals Against / Game
1.4
80%
Clean Sheets
40%
5-0-0
W — D — L
3-0-2
Win Rate
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
T0
0-0
9.1%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
1.6%
0-3
0.3%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
T1
1-0
16.3%
1-1
9.8%
1-2
2.9%
1-3
0.6%
1-4
0.1%
1-5
0.0%
T2
2-0
14.7%
2-1
8.8%
2-2
2.7%
2-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
2-5
0.0%
T3
3-0
8.8%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
1.6%
3-3
0.3%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
T4
4-0
4.0%
4-1
2.4%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
T5
5-0
1.4%
5-1
0.9%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(16.3%)
2-0(14.7%)
2-1(8.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
T=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Trefelin Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Aberystwyth Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
44%
Draw & BTTS Yes
0%
Draw & BTTS No
0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
32%
Home Win & Under 2.5
32%
Draw & Over 2.5
0%
Draw & Under 2.5
0%
Away Win & Over 2.5
19%
Away Win & Under 2.5
19%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ FAW (Nov 8, 2025): Aberystwyth0
Trefelin2
Recent Form
Trefelin
⚽ FAW (Mar 4, 2026): Trefelin3
Cardiff Draconians1
⚽ FAW (Feb 28, 2026): Llantwit Major0
Trefelin1
⚽ FAW (Feb 20, 2026): Trefelin2
Ynyshir Albions0
⚽ FAW (Feb 17, 2026): Trefelin3
Baglan Dragons0
⚽ FAW (Feb 13, 2026): Carmarthen Town0
Trefelin2
Aberystwyth
⚽ FAW (Mar 1, 2026): Aberystwyth0
Caerau Ely4
⚽ FAW (Feb 24, 2026): Ammanford2
Aberystwyth1
⚽ FAW (Feb 14, 2026): Aberystwyth2
Treowen1
⚽ FAW (Feb 7, 2026): Baglan Dragons0
Aberystwyth1
⚽ FAW (Jan 31, 2026): Newport City0
Aberystwyth1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 7th March 2026, Trefelin host Aberystwyth in Wales Cymru South. We recommend Trefelin to win as the standout selection.
Trefelin arrive in strong form, having recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Aberystwyth are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 3W 0D 2L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour Trefelin, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: trefelin to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
A top-of-the-table battle is set to take place as league leaders Trefelin BGC host 5th-placed Aberystwyth Town at Ynys Park. A fantastic season is being enjoyed by Trefelin, who have established themselves as the team to beat in the Cymru South. Incredible consistency has been shown by the home side, with a perfect month of February recorded where four victories were earned without a single goal being conceded. Veteran striker Luke Bowen has been in sensational form, having found the net in all four of those recent wins, bringing his season total to 12 goals. Defensive solidity has also been a hallmark of their success, with the backline playing every minute of their recent clean-sheet streak.
A period of mixed results is being navigated by Aberystwyth Town. While a respectable position in the top five is held by the visitors, a heavy 4-0 defeat was recently suffered against Caerau Ely, which has raised questions about their defensive stability. Despite this setback, the team has shown they can be dangerous on their travels, with a better points-per-game average earned away from home than at their own stadium. In the previous meeting between these two clubs back in November, a 2-0 victory was secured by Trefelin. Given the current momentum and the strong scoring form of the home side, a victory for Trefelin is widely predicted to keep them at the summit of the league.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Trefelin vs Aberystwyth?
Our selection is 1 — Trefelin to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Trefelin's current form?
Trefelin have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches.
How has Aberystwyth been performing recently?
Aberystwyth have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Trefelin lead with 1 wins versus Aberystwyth's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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