WON Tip WON PSG 3-1 Toulouse
P

PSG

Home
W W W L W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
3-1
T
Toulouse
Away
W W L W L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 3rd April 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 65.8% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +16.2% Value detected
Kelly % 47.4% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
PSG
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
PSG
Metric
Toulouse
2.8
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
70%
30%
3.1
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.2%) 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
PSG
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.0
Toulouse
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.08.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse3
PSG6
15.02.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
22.11.24
Ligue 1: PSG3
Toulouse0
12.05.24
Ligue 1: PSG1
Toulouse3
03.01.24
Trophee des Champions: PSG2
Toulouse0
19.08.23
Ligue 1: Toulouse1
PSG1
04.02.23
Ligue 1: PSG2
Toulouse1
31.08.22
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG3
25.08.19
Ligue 1: PSG4
Toulouse0
31.03.19
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
Recent Form
PSG
21.03.26
Ligue 1: Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26
UCL: Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26
UCL: PSG5
Chelsea2
W
06.03.26
Ligue 1: PSG1
Monaco3
L
28.02.26
Ligue 1: Le Havre0
PSG1
W
25.02.26
UCL: PSG2
Monaco2
D
21.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG3
Metz0
W
17.02.26
UCL: Monaco2
PSG3
W
13.02.26
Ligue 1: Rennes3
PSG1
L
08.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG5
Marseille0
W
Toulouse
21.03.26
L1: Toulouse1
Lorient0
W
15.03.26
L1: Metz3
Toulouse4
W
07.03.26
L1: Toulouse0
Marseille1
L
04.03.26
CDF: Marseille2
Toulouse (2-3 Pens)2
W
28.02.26
L1: Rennes1
Toulouse0
L
21.02.26
L1: Toulouse1
Paris FC1
D
15.02.26
L1: Le Havre2
Toulouse1
L
08.02.26
L1: Angers1
Toulouse0
L
04.02.26
CDF: Toulouse1
Amiens0
W
01.02.26
L1: Toulouse0
Auxerre0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 3rd April 2026, PSG host Toulouse in Ligue 1. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

PSG arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Toulouse are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PSG, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Ligue 1 match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.52. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Toulouse?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.52. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toulouse been performing recently?
Toulouse have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 8 wins versus Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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