LOST Tip LOST Shkendija 1-2 Pelister
S

Shkendija

Home
W W W D W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
1-2
P
Pelister
Away
L D L D L
1W 3D 6L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 4th April 2026
1
Backing Shkendija to win
Shkendija 60%
Draw 20%
Pelister 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 82.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -35.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shkendija to win
1.21
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Shkendija vs Pelister Competition: North Macedonia 1. MFL Date: Saturday, 4th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Shkendija to win) Odds: 1.21 Confidence: 47% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (80%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Shkendija
9
Draws
1
Pelister
10
Meetings
1.8
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Shkendija won 0 of the last 10 meetings (9 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shkendija
Metric
Pelister
0
Goals For / Game
0.7
0
Goals Against / Game
1.1
0%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
70%
10%
0.9
Avg Goals
25%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
20%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
S0
0-0 40.7%
0-1 14.2%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 22.4%
1-1 7.8%
1-2 1.4%
1-3 0.2%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 6.2%
2-1 2.2%
2-2 0.4%
2-3 0.0%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.1%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(22.4%) 2-0(6.2%) 2-1(2.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Shkendija Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Pelister Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shkendija
Overall
7.3
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
Pelister
Overall
1.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 56%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 2%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 60%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.03.26
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
06.10.25
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija0
09.03.25
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija1
FK Pelister0
24.11.24
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija1
31.08.24
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister0
06.04.22
1. MFL: FK Pelister0
KF Shkëndija2
05.12.21
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
28.08.21
1. MFL: FK Pelister2
KF Shkëndija2
14.03.21
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija1
FK Pelister0
16.12.20
1. MFL: KF Shkëndija0
FK Pelister1
Recent Form
Shkendija
21.03.26
1ML: Makedonija GjP0
Shkëndija1
W
18.03.26
CUP: FC Struga2
(ET) Shkëndija3
W
15.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija1
KF Arsimi0
W
09.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija1
Brera Strumica1
D
05.03.26
1ML: FK Vardar0
Shkëndija1
W
02.03.26
1ML: Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
W
26.02.26
UECL: Samsunspor4
Shkëndija0
L
22.02.26
1ML: FK Sileks1
Shkëndija2
W
19.02.26
UECL: Shkëndija0
Samsunspor1
L
14.02.26
1ML: GFK Tikvesh1
Shkëndija4
W
Pelister
22.03.26
1ML: FK Pelister0
FC Struga2
L
16.03.26
1ML: FK Sileks0
FK Pelister0
D
08.03.26
1ML: GFK Tikvesh1
FK Pelister0
L
05.03.26
1ML: FK Pelister0
FK Sileks0
D
02.03.26
1ML: KF Shkëndija2
FK Pelister1
L
21.02.26
1ML: FK Pelister1
FC Struga1
D
17.02.26
1ML: KF Bashkimi1
FK Pelister0
L
12.02.26
1ML: FK Pelister4
FK Rabotnički1
W
30.01.26
Friendly: FK Pelister0
Pakhtakor1
L
28.01.26
Friendly: Navbahor Namangan2
FK Pelister1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming North Macedonia 1. MFL match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts.

We always begin by checking out the home team. Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games.

That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now. Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks.

Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong. On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss.

When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold. Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.21. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money.

Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shkendija vs Pelister?
Our selection is 1 — Shkendija to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 47%.
What is Shkendija's current form?
Shkendija have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pelister been performing recently?
Pelister have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shkendija lead with 0 wins versus Pelister's 1, with 9 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 0.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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