WON Tip WON Marseille 3-1 Metz
M

Marseille

Home
L L W W L
4W 2D 4L → Steady
VS
3-1
M
Metz
Away
D D L L L
0W 3D 7L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 10th April 2026
1
Backing Marseille to win
Marseille 50%
Draw 30%
Metz 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -32.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
4
Marseille
6
Draws
0
Metz
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Marseille won 4 of the last 10 meetings (6 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Marseille
Metric
Metz
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.7
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-2-4
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
40%
0%
2.9
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 3.8%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 9.8%
1-1 11.3%
1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 8.4%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.1%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 4.7%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.8%) 2-1(9.6%) 2-0(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Marseille Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Metz Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Marseille
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.7
Defence
4.3
Metz
Overall
0.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
3.3
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 23%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.10.25
Ligue 1: Metz0
Marseille3
09.02.24
Ligue 1: Marseille1
Metz1
18.08.23
Ligue 1: Metz2
Marseille2
13.02.22
Ligue 1: Metz1
Marseille2
07.11.21
Ligue 1: Marseille0
Metz0
23.05.21
Ligue 1: Metz1
Marseille1
26.09.20
Ligue 1: Marseille1
Metz1
14.12.19
Ligue 1: Metz1
Marseille1
02.02.18
Ligue 1: Marseille6
Metz3
29.11.17
Ligue 1: Metz0
Marseille3
Recent Form
Marseille
05.04.26
Ligue 1: AS Monaco2
Marseille1
L
22.03.26
Ligue 1: Marseille1
LOSC Lille2
L
13.03.26
Ligue 1: Marseille1
AJ Auxerre0
W
07.03.26
Ligue 1: Toulouse FC0
Marseille1
W
04.03.26
Coupe de France: Marseille2
Toulouse FC - L (4-5 pens)2
01.03.26
Ligue 1: Marseille3
Lyon2
W
20.02.26
Ligue 1: Brest2
Marseille0
L
14.02.26
Ligue 1: Marseille2
Strasbourg2
D
08.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG5
Marseille0
L
03.02.26
Coupe de France: Marseille3
Rennes0
W
Metz
05.04.26
Ligue 1: Metz0
FC Nantes0
D
22.03.26
Ligue 1: Stade Rennais0
Metz0
D
15.03.26
Ligue 1: Metz3
Toulouse FC4
L
08.03.26
Ligue 1: RC Lens3
Metz0
L
01.03.26
Ligue 1: Metz0
Stade Brestois1
L
21.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG3
Metz0
L
15.02.26
Ligue 1: Metz1
AJ Auxerre3
L
06.02.26
Ligue 1: Metz0
LOSC Lille0
D
01.02.26
Ligue 1: Angers SCO1
Metz0
L
25.01.26
Ligue 1: Metz2
Olympique Lyonnais5
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 10th April 2026, Marseille host Metz in Ligue 1. We recommend Marseille to win as the standout selection.

Marseille arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Metz are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 3D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Marseille, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Metz's 0, with 6 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: marseille to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Ligue 1 match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.31. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Marseille vs Metz?
Our selection is 1 — Marseille to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 44%.
What is Marseille's current form?
Marseille have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Metz been performing recently?
Metz have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Marseille lead with 4 wins versus Metz's 0, with 6 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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