WON Tip WON Man City 2-1 Southampton
M

Man City

Home
W W W W W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
VS
2-1
S
Southampton
Away
D W W W W
8W 2D 0L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 25th April 2026
1
Backing Man City to win
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Man City to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Man City vs Southampton Competition: FA Cup Date: Saturday, 25th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Man City to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 60% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Man City
3
Draws
1
Southampton
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Man City won 6 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Man City
Metric
Southampton
1.9
Goals For / Game
2.2
1
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
8-2-0
Win Rate
60%
80%
3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 8.4%
0-2 6.7%
0-3 3.6%
0-4 1.4%
0-5 0.5%
M1
1-0 7.1%
1-1 11.3%
1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.8%
1-4 1.9%
1-5 0.6%
M2
2-0 4.8%
2-1 7.6%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.3%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 2.2%
3-1 3.4%
3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
M4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
M5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(7.6%) 1-0(7.1%) 2-0(4.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Man City
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.7
Southampton
Overall
8.6
Scoring
7.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 11%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 34%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.05.25PL
Southampton0
Manchester City0
26.10.24PL
Manchester City1
Southampton0
08.04.23PL
Southampton1
Manchester City4
11.01.23EFL
Southampton2
Manchester City0
08.10.22PL
Manchester City4
Southampton0
20.03.22FAC
Southampton1
Manchester City4
22.01.22PL
Southampton1
Manchester City1
18.09.21PL
Manchester City0
Southampton0
10.03.21PL
Manchester City5
Southampton2
19.12.20PL
Southampton0
Manchester City1
Recent Form
Man City
22.04.26PL
Burnley0
Manchester City1
W
19.04.26PL
Manchester City2
Arsenal1
W
12.04.26PL
Chelsea0
Manchester City3
W
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
W
22.03.26EFL
Arsenal0
Manchester City2
W
17.03.26CL
Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
L
14.03.26PL
West Ham1
Manchester City1
D
11.03.26CL
Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
L
07.03.26FAC
Newcastle1
Manchester City3
W
04.03.26PL
Manchester City2
Nottingham2
D
Southampton
21.04.26CHA
Southampton2
Bristol City2
D
18.04.26CHA
Swansea1
Southampton2
W
14.04.26CHA
Southampton3
Blackburn0
W
11.04.26CHA
Southampton2
Derby1
W
07.04.26CHA
Wrexham1
Southampton5
W
04.04.26FAC
Southampton2
Arsenal1
W
21.03.26CHA
Southampton2
Oxford Utd0
W
18.03.26CHA
Southampton1
Norwich0
W
14.03.26CHA
Coventry1
Southampton2
W
11.03.26CHA
West Brom1
Southampton1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 25th April 2026, Man City host Southampton in FA Cup. We recommend Man City to win as the standout selection.

Man City arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Southampton are travelling well, with a record of 8W 2D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Man City, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Southampton's 1, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: man city to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming FA Cup match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.26. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man City vs Southampton?
Our selection is 1 — Man City to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Man City's current form?
Man City have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Southampton been performing recently?
Southampton have recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man City lead with 6 wins versus Southampton's 1, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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