WON Tip WON Estrela 1-2 FC Porto
E

Estrela

Home
L L L W L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Improving
VS
1-2
F
FC Porto
Away
D W L W D
6W 3D 1L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 26th April 2026
2
Backing FC Porto to win
Estrela 20%
Draw 30%
FC Porto 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
Estrela
0
Draws
8
FC Porto
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip FC Porto won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Estrela
Metric
FC Porto
0.9
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
0.7
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
2-2-6
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
20%
60%
2.3
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
E0
0-0 10.5%
0-1 15.3%
0-2 11.1%
0-3 5.4%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.6%
E1
1-0 8.4%
1-1 12.2%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.3%
1-4 1.6%
1-5 0.5%
E2
2-0 3.4%
2-1 4.9%
2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
E3
3-0 0.9%
3-1 1.3%
3-2 1.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 0.2%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(15.3%) 0-2(11.1%) 1-2(8.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Estrela Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
FC Porto Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Estrela
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
FC Porto
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.7
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 14%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Away Win & BTTS No 34%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 31%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
15.12.25LP
FC Porto3
Estrela1
26.04.25LP
Estrela2
FC Porto0
16.12.24LP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
17.02.24LP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
15.09.23LP
Estrela0
FC Porto1
22.04.09TP
Estrela2
FC Porto1
11.04.09LP
FC Porto3
Estrela0
22.03.09TP
FC Porto2
Estrela0
17.12.08LP
Estrela2
FC Porto4
05.04.08LP
FC Porto6
Estrela0
Recent Form
Estrela
19.04.26LP
Arouca1
Estrela0
L
11.04.26LP
Estrela0
Sporting CP1
L
04.04.26LP
Nacional2
Estrela0
L
20.03.26LP
Estrela4
Casa Pia0
W
15.03.26LP
Rio Ave2
Estrela1
L
08.03.26LP
Estrela2
Gil Vicente2
D
28.02.26LP
AFS0
Estrela0
D
20.02.26LP
Estrela0
Tondela2
L
14.02.26LP
Vitoria Guimaraes2
Estrela1
L
07.02.26LP
Estrela1
Santa Clara0
W
FC Porto
22.04.26TP
FC Porto0
Sporting CP0
D
19.04.26LP
FC Porto2
Tondela0
W
16.04.26EL
Nottingham1
FC Porto0
L
12.04.26LP
Estoril1
FC Porto3
W
09.04.26EL
FC Porto1
Nottingham1
D
04.04.26LP
FC Porto2
Famalicao2
D
22.03.26LP
Braga1
FC Porto2
W
19.03.26EL
FC Porto2
Stuttgart0
W
15.03.26LP
FC Porto3
Moreirense0
W
12.03.26EL
Stuttgart1
FC Porto2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Estrela host FC Porto in Portugal Liga. We recommend FC Porto to win as the standout selection.

Estrela arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FC Porto are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 3D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Estrela, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to FC Porto's 8, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fc porto to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Portugal Liga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 2, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Estrela vs FC Porto?
Our selection is 2 — FC Porto to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Estrela's current form?
Estrela have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has FC Porto been performing recently?
FC Porto have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Estrela lead with 2 wins versus FC Porto's 8, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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