LOST Tip LOST PSG 2-2 Lorient
P

PSG

Home
W W W L W
9W 0D 1L → Steady
VS
2-2
L
Lorient
Away
L W L D L
2W 4D 4L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 2nd May 2026
1
Backing PSG to win
PSG 50%
Draw 30%
Lorient 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 73% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -11% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — PSG to win
1.37
Over 1.5 Goals90% PSG Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
PSG vs Lorient Competition: Ligue 1 Date: Saturday, 2nd May 2026 Pick: 1 (PSG to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 62% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: PSG Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
5
PSG
3
Draws
2
Lorient
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Neutral PSG won 5 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
PSG
Metric
Lorient
3.1
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
60%
Clean Sheets
10%
9-0-1
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
90%
20%
3.4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
P0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 3.7%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
P1
1-0 7.7%
1-1 8.4%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.7%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 8.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.8%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 4.1%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 4.3%
4-2 2.4%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
P5
5-0 1.8%
5-1 2.0%
5-2 1.1%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(8.8%) 1-0(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
PSG Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Lorient Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
PSG
Overall
9.0
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.0
Lorient
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.3
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 41%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.10.25L1
Lorient1
PSG1
24.04.24L1
Lorient1
PSG4
12.08.23L1
PSG0
Lorient0
30.04.23L1
PSG1
Lorient3
06.11.22L1
Lorient1
PSG2
03.04.22L1
PSG5
Lorient1
22.12.21L1
Lorient1
PSG1
31.01.21L1
Lorient3
PSG2
16.12.20L1
PSG2
Lorient0
19.01.20CDF
Lorient0
PSG1
Recent Form
PSG
28.04.26CL
PSG5
Bayern Munich4
W
25.04.26L1
Angers0
PSG3
W
22.04.26L1
PSG3
Nantes0
W
19.04.26L1
PSG1
Lyon2
L
14.04.26CL
Liverpool0
PSG2
W
08.04.26CL
PSG2
Liverpool0
W
03.04.26L1
PSG3
Toulouse1
W
21.03.26L1
Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26CL
Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26CL
PSG5
Chelsea2
W
Lorient
26.04.26L1
Lorient2
Strasbourg3
L
18.04.26L1
Lorient2
Marseille0
W
12.04.26L1
Lyon2
Lorient0
L
05.04.26L1
Lorient1
Paris FC1
D
21.03.26L1
Toulouse1
Lorient0
L
14.03.26L1
Lorient2
Lens1
W
08.03.26L1
Lille1
Lorient1
D
04.03.26CDF
Lorient0
Nice - L (aet)1
01.03.26L1
Lorient2
Auxerre2
D
22.02.26L1
Nice3
Lorient3
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 2nd May 2026, PSG host Lorient in Ligue 1. We recommend PSG to win as the standout selection.

PSG arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Lorient are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PSG, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Lorient's 2, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: psg to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Ligue 1 match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.37. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Lorient?
Our selection is 1 — PSG to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Lorient been performing recently?
Lorient have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 5 wins versus Lorient's 2, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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