LOST Tip LOST Lech Poznan 1-1 Arka Gdynia
L

Lech Poznan

Home
W W W D D
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
1-1
A
Arka Gdynia
Away
L L D W L
3W 3D 4L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 8th May 2026
1
Backing Lech Poznan to win
Lech Poznan 50%
Draw 20%
Arka Gdynia 30%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 3.33
Implied Prob 72.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Lech Poznan to win
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia Competition: Poland Ekstraklasa Date: Friday, 8th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Lech Poznan to win) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 48% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Lech Poznan
3
Draws
4
Arka Gdynia
10
Meetings
1.7
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Lech Poznan won 3 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Lech Poznan
Metric
Arka Gdynia
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.9
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-2-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
60%
30%
3.2
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
L0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 5.4%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 8.1%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
L3
3-0 4.9%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 2.9%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 0.9%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.7%) 1-0(8.1%) 2-0(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lech Poznan Win
50%
2
Draw
20%
5
Arka Gdynia Win
30%
3.33
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lech Poznan
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
Arka Gdynia
Overall
3.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 42%
Home Win & Under 2.5 10%
Draw & Over 2.5 18%
Draw & Under 2.5 4%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
09.11.25EKS
Arka Gdynia3
Lech Poznan1
07.12.23CUP
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan1
09.07.21CF
Lech Poznan0
Arka Gdynia2
19.12.19EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia1
17.08.19EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan0
03.03.19EKS
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia0
21.09.18EKS
Arka Gdynia1
Lech Poznan0
11.02.18EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Lech Poznan0
27.08.17EKS
Lech Poznan3
Arka Gdynia0
02.05.17CUP
Lech Poznan1
Arka Gdynia2
Recent Form
Lech Poznan
02.05.26EKS
Motor Lublin0
Lech Poznan1
W
26.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Legia0
W
18.04.26EKS
Pogon Szczecin1
Lech Poznan2
W
12.04.26EKS
Lech Poznan3
GKS Katowice3
D
04.04.26EKS
Jagiellonia0
Lech Poznan0
D
22.03.26EKS
Lech Poznan4
Termalica B-B.1
W
19.03.26UECL
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Lech Poznan2
W
15.03.26EKS
Zaglebie0
Lech Poznan1
W
12.03.26UECL
Lech Poznan1
Shakhtar Donetsk3
L
07.03.26EKS
Widzew Lodz2
Lech Poznan1
L
Arka Gdynia
27.04.26EKS
Piast Gliwice4
Arka Gdynia1
L
19.04.26EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Jagiellonia3
L
12.04.26EKS
Cracovia2
Arka Gdynia2
D
07.04.26EKS
Arka Gdynia3
Zaglebie1
W
22.03.26EKS
Korona Kielce3
Arka Gdynia0
L
15.03.26EKS
Arka Gdynia0
Widzew Lodz0
D
09.03.26EKS
Wisla Plock0
Arka Gdynia3
W
05.03.26EKS
Radomiak Radom3
Arka Gdynia1
L
27.02.26EKS
Arka Gdynia2
Lechia Gdansk2
D
22.02.26EKS
Arka Gdynia2
GKS Katowice1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 8th May 2026, Lech Poznan host Arka Gdynia in Poland Ekstraklasa. We recommend Lech Poznan to win as the standout selection.

Lech Poznan arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Arka Gdynia are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lech Poznan, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Arka Gdynia's 4, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lech poznan to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Poland Ekstraklasa match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.38. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lech Poznan vs Arka Gdynia?
Our selection is 1 — Lech Poznan to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Lech Poznan's current form?
Lech Poznan have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Arka Gdynia been performing recently?
Arka Gdynia have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lech Poznan lead with 3 wins versus Arka Gdynia's 4, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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