WON Tip WON RFS 5-0 FK Liepaja
R

RFS

Home
W D W W W
8W 1D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
5-0
F
FK Liepaja
Away
L D W D D
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 8th May 2026
1
Backing RFS to win
RFS 50%
Draw 30%
FK Liepaja 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 77.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -10.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
RFS
1
Draws
1
FK Liepaja
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip RFS won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
RFS
Metric
FK Liepaja
2
Goals For / Game
1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
80%
30%
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
R0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 12.5%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.5%) 2-0(10.0%) 2-1(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
RFS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
FK Liepaja Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
RFS
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.0
FK Liepaja
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
28.09.25VIR
FK Liepaja2
RFS2
04.07.25VIR
RFS2
FK Liepaja1
14.05.25VIR
FK Liepaja2
RFS1
29.03.25VIR
RFS4
FK Liepaja1
20.09.24VIR
RFS2
FK Liepaja0
01.07.24VIR
FK Liepaja1
RFS3
10.05.24VIR
RFS4
FK Liepaja1
30.03.24VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS3
30.09.23VIR
RFS3
FK Liepaja1
Recent Form
RFS
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Grobina0
RFS1
W
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova0
W
13.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS2
W
08.04.26VIR
Jelgava0
RFS1
W
04.04.26VIR
RFS0
Auda1
L
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
W
06.03.26VIR
RFS2
Ogre United0
W
FK Liepaja
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
L
28.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Grobina1
D
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
W
17.04.26VIR
Tukums 20002
FK Liepaja2
D
12.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Jelgava1
D
08.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Auda2
L
03.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
L
07.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja2
Riga FC1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 8th May 2026, RFS host FK Liepaja in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend RFS to win as the standout selection.

RFS arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FK Liepaja are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour RFS, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to FK Liepaja's 1, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rfs to win at odds of 1.29 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Latvia Virsliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.29. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RFS vs FK Liepaja?
Our selection is 1 — RFS to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is RFS's current form?
RFS have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has FK Liepaja been performing recently?
FK Liepaja have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RFS lead with 8 wins versus FK Liepaja's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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