WON Tip WON Man City 3-0 Brentford
M

Man City

Home
D W W W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3-0
B
Brentford
Away
W L D D D
2W 5D 3L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 9th May 2026
1
Backing Man City to win
Man City 50%
Draw 30%
Brentford 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 70.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -12.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Man City to win
1.42
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Man City vs Brentford Competition: Premier League Date: Saturday, 9th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Man City to win) Odds: 1.42 Confidence: 58% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Man City
1
Draws
2
Brentford
10
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Man City won 7 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Man City
Metric
Brentford
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
60%
20%
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
M0
0-0 5.5%
0-1 6.9%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 9.1%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 3.0%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 7.5%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
M3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 5.2%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.4%) 1-0(9.1%) 2-0(7.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Man City Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Brentford Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Man City
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.3
Brentford
Overall
3.5
Scoring
4.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.12.25EFL
Manchester City2
Brentford0
05.10.25PL
Brentford0
Manchester City1
14.01.25PL
Brentford2
Manchester City2
14.09.24PL
Manchester City2
Brentford1
20.02.24PL
Manchester City1
Brentford0
05.02.24PL
Brentford1
Manchester City3
28.05.23PL
Brentford1
Manchester City0
12.11.22PL
Manchester City1
Brentford2
09.02.22PL
Manchester City2
Brentford0
29.12.21PL
Brentford0
Manchester City1
Recent Form
Man City
04.05.26PL
Everton3
Manchester City3
D
25.04.26FAC
Manchester City2
Southampton1
W
22.04.26PL
Burnley0
Manchester City1
W
19.04.26PL
Manchester City2
Arsenal1
W
12.04.26PL
Chelsea0
Manchester City3
W
04.04.26FAC
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
W
22.03.26EFL
Arsenal0
Manchester City2
W
17.03.26CL
Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
L
14.03.26PL
West Ham1
Manchester City1
D
11.03.26CL
Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
L
Brentford
02.05.26PL
Brentford3
West Ham0
W
27.04.26PL
Manchester Utd2
Brentford1
L
18.04.26PL
Brentford0
Fulham0
D
11.04.26PL
Brentford2
Everton2
D
21.03.26PL
Leeds0
Brentford0
D
16.03.26PL
Brentford2
Wolves2
D
09.03.26FAC
West Ham3
Brentford2
L
03.03.26PL
Bournemouth0
Brentford0
D
28.02.26PL
Burnley3
Brentford4
W
21.02.26PL
Brentford0
Brighton2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 9th May 2026, Man City host Brentford in Premier League. We recommend Man City to win as the standout selection.

Man City arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Brentford are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Man City, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Brentford's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: man city to win at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Premier League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.42. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man City vs Brentford?
Our selection is 1 — Man City to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Man City's current form?
Man City have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Brentford been performing recently?
Brentford have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man City lead with 7 wins versus Brentford's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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