B
BFC Daugavpils
Home
W
D
D
D
L
2W 4D 4L
▼ Declining
VS
—
4:00 pm
Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils)
R
Riga
Away
W
W
W
W
W
9W 1D 0L
▲ Improving
BFC Daugavpils
20%
Draw
30%
Riga
50%
H Fair Odds
5
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
2
Implied Prob
79.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-11.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
BFC Daugavpils
1
Draws
8
Riga
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Riga won 8 of 10 meetings.
Stats Duel
Comparison
BFC Daugavpils
Metric
Riga
0.9
Goals For / Game
2.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.7
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
2-4-4
W — D — L
9-1-0
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B0
0-0
6.4%
0-1
12.5%
0-2
12.2%
0-3
7.9%
0-4
3.9%
0-5
1.5%
B1
1-0
5.1%
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.7%
1-3
6.3%
1-4
3.1%
1-5
1.2%
B2
2-0
2.1%
2-1
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
2.5%
2-4
1.2%
2-5
0.5%
B3
3-0
0.6%
3-1
1.1%
3-2
1.0%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
B4
4-0
0.1%
4-1
0.2%
4-2
0.2%
4-3
0.1%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
B5
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.0%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
0-1(12.5%)
0-2(12.2%)
1-2(9.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
B=Home goals ↓ R=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
BFC Daugavpils Win
5
20%
Draw
3.33
30%
Riga Win
2
50%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
9%
Home Win & BTTS No
6%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
40%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
8%
Home Win & Under 2.5
7%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
9%
Away Win & Over 2.5
36%
Away Win & Under 2.5
30%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
Riga FC4
BFC Daugavpils2
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC1
Riga FC1
BFC Daugavpils1
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC1
Riga FC1
BFC Daugavpils2
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC5
Riga FC1
BFC Daugavpils0
BFC Daugavpils0
Riga FC2
Riga FC2
BFC Daugavpils0
Recent Form
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils1
Grobina0
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova0
Tukums 20001
BFC Daugavpils1
Jelgava1
BFC Daugavpils1
BFC Daugavpils0
Auda1
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United1
FK Liepaja2
BFC Daugavpils1
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS1
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
Grobina1
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga
Riga FC4
FK Liepaja0
Riga FC2
RFS1
Ogre United1
Riga FC4
Riga FC2
Grobina0
Riga FC3
Super Nova0
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
Riga FC2
Jelgava2
Riga FC4
Auda1
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
BFC Daugavpils (Home)
BFC Daugavpils1
Grobina0
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova0
BFC Daugavpils0
Auda1
BFC Daugavpils3
Ogre United1
BFC Daugavpils0
RFS1
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
BFC Daugavpils0
Super Nova1
BFC Daugavpils1
Jelgava0
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United1
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
Riga (Away)
Ogre United1
Riga FC4
Tukums 20001
Riga FC3
BFC Daugavpils1
Riga FC3
RFS3
Riga FC3
Grobina0
Riga FC3
Super Nova1
Riga FC4
Jelgava0
Riga FC8
Legia3
Riga FC1
Auda1
Riga FC2
FK Liepaja2
Riga FC1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 25th June 2026, BFC Daugavpils host Riga at Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils) in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend Riga to win as the standout selection.
BFC Daugavpils arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Riga are travelling well, with a record of 9W 1D 0L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour BFC Daugavpils, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Riga's 8, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: riga to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Latvia Virsliga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 5 wins from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 2 at @1.26, sitting at roughly 20,30,50% in our model. The match gets going at 4:00 pm over at Stadions Celtnieks (Daugavpils).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
Our selection is 2 — Riga to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is BFC Daugavpils's current form?
BFC Daugavpils have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Riga been performing recently?
Riga have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
BFC Daugavpils lead with 1 wins versus Riga's 8, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.