LOST Tip LOST Aarau 1-3 Etoile-Carouge
A

Aarau

Home
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
1-3
E
Etoile-Carouge
Away
D W W L W
4W 4D 2L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 7th April 2026
1X
Backing Aarau to win or draw
Implied Prob 95.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -5.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Aarau to win or draw
1.05
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge Competition: Swiss Challenge League Date: Tuesday, 7th April 2026 Pick: 1X (Aarau to win or draw) Odds: 1.05 Confidence: 90% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (70%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Aarau
1
Draws
2
Etoile-Carouge
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aarau
Metric
Etoile-Carouge
2.4
Goals For / Game
0
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0
40%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-2-1
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate
70%
40%
2
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
A0
0-0 14.2%
0-1 10.7%
0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 17.1%
1-1 12.8%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 10.2%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.1%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(17.1%) 0-0(14.2%) 1-1(12.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   E=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Aarau
Overall
7.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.0
Etoile-Carouge
Overall
5.2
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Aarau3
12.12.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge1
26.09.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
16.05.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
28.03.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge2
05.12.24
Swiss Cup: Aarau0
Etoile-Carouge1
01.11.24
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge2
Aarau1
24.08.24
Challenge League: Aarau1
Etoile-Carouge0
23.05.12
Challenge League: Aarau7
Etoile-Carouge0
24.09.11
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge0
Aarau2
Recent Form
Aarau
04.04.26
Challenge League: Rapperswil-Jona4
FC Aarau5
W
21.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Neuchâtel Xamax0
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Vaduz0
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
W
27.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau5
Rapperswil-Jona3
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais1
FC Aarau1
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4
FC Aarau2
L
07.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Wil2
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Yverdon Sport1
FC Aarau2
W
24.01.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Bellinzona0
W
Etoile-Carouge
03.04.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Stade Nyonnais0
D
22.03.26
Challenge League: FC Wil1
Étoile Carouge3
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: Bellinzona0
Étoile Carouge3
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
L
28.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0
Étoile Carouge1
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Yverdon Sport2
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge1
Neuchâtel Xamax3
L
06.02.26
Challenge League: FC Vaduz3
Étoile Carouge3
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Rapperswil-Jona1
W
23.01.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais2
Étoile Carouge2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th April 2026, Aarau host Etoile-Carouge in Swiss Challenge League. We recommend Aarau to win or draw as the standout selection.

Aarau arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Etoile-Carouge are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Aarau, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aarau to win or draw at odds of 1.05 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Swiss Challenge League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1X, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.05. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge?
Our selection is 1X — Aarau to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.05. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Aarau's current form?
Aarau have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Etoile-Carouge been performing recently?
Etoile-Carouge have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aarau lead with 7 wins versus Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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