LOST Tip LOST Al Nassr 1-1 Al Hilal
A

Al Nassr

Home
W L W W W
9W 0D 1L โ†’ Steady
VS
1-1
A
Al Hilal
Away
W W W W L
8W 1D 1L โ–ฒ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection ยท Tuesday, 12th May 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 71.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +7.1% Value detected
Kelly % 25.2% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 โ€” over 2.5 goals
1.39
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals80% Al Nassr Clean Sheet60%
๐Ÿ“‹ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Nassr vs Al Hilal Competition: Saudi Professional League Date: Tuesday, 12th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.39 Confidence: 79% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%) Also: Al Nassr Clean Sheet (60%)
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Head to Head
Record
2
Al Nassr
2
Draws
6
Al Hilal
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Nassr
Metric
Al Hilal
3
Goals For / Game
2.6
0.8
Goals Against / Game
0.9
60%
Clean Sheets
50%
9-0-1
W โ€” D โ€” L
8-1-1
Win Rate
90%
80%
3.7
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 2.6%
0-1 4.4%
0-2 3.8%
0-3 2.1%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
A1
1-0 5.1%
1-1 8.6%
1-2 7.3%
1-3 4.2%
1-4 1.8%
1-5 0.6%
A2
2-0 4.9%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 7.1%
2-3 4.1%
2-4 1.7%
2-5 0.6%
A3
3-0 3.2%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 4.6%
3-3 2.6%
3-4 1.1%
3-5 0.4%
A4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 2.7%
4-2 2.3%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.2%
A5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-1(8.6%) 2-1(8.4%) 1-2(7.3%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts tip A=Home goals โ†“   A=Away โ†’
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Team Ratings
Grades
Al Nassr
Overall
9.0 โ–ฒ
Scoring
10.0 โ–ฒ
Defence
7.3 โ–ฒ
Al Hilal
Overall
8.3 โ€”
Scoring
8.7 โ€”
Defence
7.0 โ€”
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 1%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 2%
Draw & Under 2.5 1%
Away Win & Over 2.5 32%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
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Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.01.26SPL
Al Hilal3
Al Nassr1
04.04.25SPL
Al Hilal1
Al Nassr3
01.11.24SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Hilal1
17.08.24SC
Al Nassr1
Al Hilal4
31.05.24KC
Al Hilal2
Al Nassr1
17.05.24SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Hilal1
08.04.24SC
Al Hilal2
Al Nassr1
08.02.24CF
Al Hilal2
Al Nassr0
01.12.23SPL
Al Hilal3
Al Nassr0
12.08.23ACCC
Al Hilal1
Al Nassr2
Recent Form
Al Nassr
07.05.26SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr4
W
03.05.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Nassr1
L
29.04.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
W
22.04.26CL2
Al Nassr5
Al Ahli Doha1
W
19.04.26CL2
Al Wasl0
Al Nassr4
W
15.04.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Ettifaq0
W
11.04.26SPL
Al Okhdood0
Al Nassr2
W
03.04.26SPL
Al Nassr5
Al Najma2
W
14.03.26SPL
Al Khaleej0
Al Nassr5
W
07.03.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Neom SC0
W
Al Hilal
08.05.26KC
Al Kholood1
Al Hilal2
W
05.05.26SPL
Al Khaleej1
Al Hilal2
W
02.05.26SPL
Al Hazem0
Al Hilal3
W
28.04.26SPL
Al Hilal1
Damac0
W
13.04.26CL
Al Hilal3
Al-Sadd4
L
08.04.26SPL
Al Hilal6
Al Kholood0
W
04.04.26SPL
Al Hilal2
Al Taawon2
D
18.03.26KC
Al Ahli SC1
Al Hilal2
W
14.03.26SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Hilal1
W
06.03.26SPL
Al Hilal4
Al Najma0
W
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Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 12th May 2026, Al Nassr host Al Hilal in Saudi Professional League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Al Nassr arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Hilal are travelling well, with a record of 8W 1D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Nassr, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Al Hilal's 6, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.39 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Saudi Professional League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.39. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Nassr vs Al Hilal?
Our selection is Over 2.5 โ€” over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.39. Tip confidence rating: 79%.
What is Al Nassr's current form?
Al Nassr have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Hilal been performing recently?
Al Hilal have recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Nassr lead with 2 wins versus Al Hilal's 6, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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