WON Tip WON FK Liepaja 4-1 Ogre United
F

FK Liepaja

Home
L L D W D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
4-1
O
Ogre United
Away
L L L L D
0W 3D 7L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 12th May 2026
1
Backing FK Liepaja to win
FK Liepaja 50%
Draw 30%
Ogre United 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -26.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
FK Liepaja
0
Draws
0
Ogre United
1
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip FK Liepaja won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FK Liepaja
Metric
Ogre United
0.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2.3
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
2-3-5
W — D — L
0-3-7
Win Rate
20%
0%
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
O0
O1
O2
O3
O4
O5
F0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 7.6%
0-2 4.8%
0-3 2.0%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
F1
1-0 9.4%
1-1 11.8%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 3.1%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.7%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
F4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.4%) 2-1(9.1%) 2-0(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   O=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FK Liepaja Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Ogre United Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
FK Liepaja
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.7
Ogre United
Overall
0.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 24%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 36%
Draw & BTTS No 24%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 27%
Draw & Under 2.5 33%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
Recent Form
FK Liepaja
08.05.26VIR
RFS5
FK Liepaja0
L
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
L
28.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Grobina1
D
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
W
17.04.26VIR
Tukums 20002
FK Liepaja2
D
12.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Jelgava1
D
08.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Auda2
L
03.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
L
Ogre United
07.05.26VIR
Tukums 20006
Ogre United1
L
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
L
27.04.26VIR
Ogre United0
Jelgava1
L
22.04.26VIR
Riga FC4
Ogre United0
L
17.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Auda1
D
13.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Grobina1
D
07.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
Ogre United1
L
03.04.26VIR
Ogre United1
Super Nova2
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
L
15.03.26VIR
Ogre United1
Tukums 20001
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 12th May 2026, FK Liepaja host Ogre United in Latvia Virsliga. We recommend FK Liepaja to win as the standout selection.

FK Liepaja arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Ogre United are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 3D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FK Liepaja, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Ogre United's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fk liepaja to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Latvia Virsliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FK Liepaja vs Ogre United?
Our selection is 1 — FK Liepaja to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is FK Liepaja's current form?
FK Liepaja have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ogre United been performing recently?
Ogre United have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Liepaja lead with 1 wins versus Ogre United's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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