WON
Tip WON
Al Shabab 2-4 Al Nassr
A
Al Shabab
Home
L
D
L
W
D
3W 4D 3L
→ Steady
VS
2-4
A
Al Nassr
Away
L
W
W
W
W
9W 0D 1L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
75.2%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+2.8%
Value detected
Kelly %
11.3%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals90%
Al Nassr Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr
Competition: Saudi Professional League
Date: Thursday, 7th May 2026
Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals)
Odds: 1.33
Confidence: 78%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: Al Nassr Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Shabab
3
Draws
7
Al Nassr
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Shabab
Metric
Al Nassr
2.6
Goals For / Game
2.9
2
Goals Against / Game
0.7
10%
Clean Sheets
60%
3-4-3
W — D — L
9-0-1
Win Rate
4.1
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0
1.7%
0-1
4.1%
0-2
5.0%
0-3
4.1%
0-4
2.5%
0-5
1.2%
A1
1-0
2.7%
1-1
6.7%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
6.7%
1-4
4.1%
1-5
2.0%
A2
2-0
2.3%
2-1
5.5%
2-2
6.8%
2-3
5.5%
2-4
3.4%
2-5
1.7%
A3
3-0
1.2%
3-1
3.0%
3-2
3.7%
3-3
3.0%
3-4
1.9%
3-5
0.9%
A4
4-0
0.5%
4-1
1.3%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
1.3%
4-4
0.8%
4-5
0.4%
A5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.4%
5-4
0.3%
5-5
0.1%
Top Scores
1-2(8.2%)
2-2(6.8%)
1-1(6.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ A=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
13%
Home Win & BTTS No
8%
Draw & BTTS Yes
8%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
39%
Away Win & BTTS No
26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
13%
Home Win & Under 2.5
8%
Draw & Over 2.5
8%
Draw & Under 2.5
6%
Away Win & Over 2.5
39%
Away Win & Under 2.5
26%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr2
Al Shabab2
Al Shabab1
Al Nassr2
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr5
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab0
Al Nassr0
Al Shabab0
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
Al Shabab0
Al Nassr0
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab2
Recent Form
Al Shabab
Al Shabab1
Al Taawon5
Al Shabab1
Al Fateh1
Al Shabab0
Al Rayyan3
Al Shabab12
Zakho1
Al Qadsiah2
Al Shabab2
Al Riyadh1
Al Shabab1
Al Shabab2
Al Okhdood0
Al Ettifaq1
Al Shabab1
Al Shabab3
Al Hilal5
Al Shabab3
Al Riyadh1
Al Nassr
Al Qadsiah3
Al Nassr1
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
Al Nassr5
Al Ahli Doha1
Al Wasl0
Al Nassr4
Al Nassr1
Al Ettifaq0
Al Okhdood0
Al Nassr2
Al Nassr5
Al Najma2
Al Khaleej0
Al Nassr5
Al Nassr1
Neom SC0
Al Fayha1
Al Nassr3
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Al Shabab host Al Nassr in Saudi Professional League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.
Al Shabab arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Al Nassr are travelling well, with a record of 9W 0D 1L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Al Shabab, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Saudi Professional League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.
Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.
Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.
On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.
Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Al Shabab's current form?
Al Shabab have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Nassr been performing recently?
Al Nassr have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Shabab lead with 0 wins versus Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.