WON
Tip WON
AZ Alkmaar 4-0 Heracles
A
AZ Alkmaar
Home
W
L
W
L
W
3W 0D 2L
→ Steady
VS
4-0
H
Heracles
Away
D
L
L
L
L
0W 1D 4L
→ Steady
AZ Alkmaar
50%
Draw
30%
Heracles
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
71.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-21.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — AZ Alkmaar to win
1.40
Over 2.5 Goals70%
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles
Competition: Eredivisie
Date: Sunday, 15th March 2026
Pick: 1 (AZ Alkmaar to win)
Odds: 1.40
Confidence: 50%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%)
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
2
Heracles
5
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
AZ Alkmaar won 2 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
AZ Alkmaar
Metric
Heracles
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.4
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2.4
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
3-0-2
W — D — L
0-1-4
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
A0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
4.4%
0-2
1.8%
0-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
0-5
0.0%
A1
1-0
11.6%
1-1
9.2%
1-2
3.7%
1-3
1.0%
1-4
0.2%
1-5
0.0%
A2
2-0
12.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
3.9%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
A3
3-0
8.5%
3-1
6.8%
3-2
2.7%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
A4
4-0
4.5%
4-1
3.6%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
A5
5-0
1.9%
5-1
1.5%
5-2
0.6%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-0(12.1%)
1-0(11.6%)
2-1(9.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
A=Home goals ↓ H=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
AZ Alkmaar Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Heracles Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
43%
Home Win & BTTS No
43%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
0%
Away Win & BTTS No
0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
60%
Home Win & Under 2.5
26%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
4%
Away Win & Over 2.5
0%
Away Win & Under 2.5
0%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
ERE: Heracles1
AZ Alkmaar2
ERE: Heracles1
AZ Alkmaar0
KNVB: Heracles2
AZ Alkmaar2
ERE: AZ Alkmaar1
Heracles0
ERE: Heracles5
AZ Alkmaar0
Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar
UCL: AZ Alkmaar2
Sparta Prague1
ERE: PSV Eindhoven2
AZ Alkmaar1
KNVB: AZ Alkmaar2
Telstar1
ERE: FC Utrecht2
AZ Alkmaar0
UCL: AZ Alkmaar4
FC Noah0
Heracles
ERE: Heracles0
FC Utrecht0
ERE: Heracles1
PSV Eindhoven3
ERE: Go Ahead Eagles4
Heracles0
ERE: Heracles0
NAC Breda1
ERE: NEC Nijmegen4
Heracles1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Sunday, 15th March 2026, AZ Alkmaar host Heracles in Eredivisie. We recommend AZ Alkmaar to win as the standout selection.
AZ Alkmaar arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Heracles are struggling away from home, with a record of 0W 1D 4L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour AZ Alkmaar, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Heracles's 2, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: az alkmaar to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles?
Our selection is 1 — AZ Alkmaar to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is AZ Alkmaar's current form?
AZ Alkmaar have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches.
How has Heracles been performing recently?
Heracles have recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
AZ Alkmaar lead with 2 wins versus Heracles's 2, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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