WON Tip WON Benfica 4-1 Moreirense
B

Benfica

Home
W W D W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
4-1
M
Moreirense
Away
W D L L L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 25th April 2026
1
Backing Benfica to win
Benfica 50%
Draw 30%
Moreirense 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 87.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -34.7% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Benfica to win
1.14
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Benfica vs Moreirense Competition: Portugal Liga Date: Saturday, 25th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Benfica to win) Odds: 1.14 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
5
Benfica
5
Draws
0
Moreirense
10
Meetings
2.5
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Neutral Benfica won 5 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Benfica
Metric
Moreirense
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.4
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
60%
20%
2.4
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
B0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 7.3%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
B1
1-0 14.5%
1-1 11.6%
1-2 4.6%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.0%
B2
2-0 11.6%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
B3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
B4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(14.5%) 2-0(11.6%) 2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Benfica Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Moreirense Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Benfica
Overall
6.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Moreirense
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 13%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 31%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
14.12.25LP
Moreirense0
Benfica4
08.02.25LP
Benfica3
Moreirense2
30.08.24LP
Moreirense1
Benfica1
14.04.24LP
Benfica3
Moreirense0
03.12.23LP
Moreirense0
Benfica0
17.12.22CUP
Moreirense1
Benfica1
15.01.22LP
Benfica1
Moreirense1
07.08.21LP
Moreirense1
Benfica2
14.02.21LP
Moreirense1
Benfica1
26.09.20LP
Benfica2
Moreirense0
Recent Form
Benfica
19.04.26LP
Sporting CP1
Benfica2
W
12.04.26LP
Benfica2
Nacional0
W
06.04.26LP
Casa Pia1
Benfica1
D
21.03.26LP
Benfica3
Vitoria Guimaraes0
W
14.03.26LP
Arouca1
Benfica2
W
08.03.26LP
Benfica2
FC Porto2
D
02.03.26LP
Gil Vicente1
Benfica2
W
25.02.26CL
Real Madrid2
Benfica1
L
21.02.26LP
Benfica3
AFS0
W
17.02.26CL
Benfica0
Real Madrid1
L
Moreirense
20.04.26LP
Moreirense1
Estoril0
W
10.04.26LP
Famalicao1
Moreirense1
D
04.04.26LP
Moreirense0
Braga1
L
21.03.26LP
Moreirense0
Arouca1
L
15.03.26LP
FC Porto3
Moreirense0
L
07.03.26LP
Moreirense1
Nacional1
D
01.03.26LP
Casa Pia1
Moreirense1
D
21.02.26LP
Moreirense0
Sporting CP3
L
16.02.26LP
Rio Ave1
Moreirense2
W
07.02.26LP
Moreirense1
Gil Vicente2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 25th April 2026, Benfica host Moreirense in Portugal Liga. We recommend Benfica to win as the standout selection.

Benfica arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Moreirense are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Benfica, who lead the head-to-head with 5 wins to Moreirense's 0, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: benfica to win at odds of 1.14 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Portugal Liga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.14. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our selection is 1 — Benfica to win, priced at approximately 1.14. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Benfica's current form?
Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Moreirense been performing recently?
Moreirense have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Benfica lead with 5 wins versus Moreirense's 0, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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