WON
Tip WON
Celta Vigo 1-1 Lyon
C
Celta Vigo
Home
L
W
W
W
W
4W 0D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
1-1
L
Lyon
Away
D
L
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L
▲ Improving
Celta Vigo
60%
Draw
20%
Lyon
20%
H Fair Odds
1.67
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
74.1%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+5.9%
Value detected
Kelly %
22.9%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals90%
BTTS — Yes70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Celta Vigo vs Lyon
Competition: UEFA Europa League
Date: Thursday, 12th March 2026
Pick: 1X (Celta Vigo to win or draw)
Odds: 1.35
Confidence: 80%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Also: BTTS — Yes (70%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Celta Vigo
0
Draws
0
Lyon
1
Meetings
1
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Neutral
Insufficient H2H data.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Celta Vigo
Metric
Lyon
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.6
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-0-1
W — D — L
1-2-2
Win Rate
2.9
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
70%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
C0
0-0
5.5%
0-1
6.6%
0-2
4.0%
0-3
1.6%
0-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
C1
1-0
9.4%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
6.7%
1-3
2.7%
1-4
0.8%
1-5
0.2%
C2
2-0
8.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
5.7%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
C3
3-0
4.5%
3-1
5.4%
3-2
3.2%
3-3
1.3%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
C4
4-0
1.9%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.4%
4-3
0.6%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.0%
C5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.8%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(11.2%)
2-1(9.5%)
1-0(9.4%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
C=Home goals ↓ L=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Celta Vigo Win
1.67
60%
Draw
5
20%
Lyon Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
47%
Home Win & BTTS No
20%
Draw & BTTS Yes
12%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
40%
Home Win & Under 2.5
27%
Draw & Over 2.5
10%
Draw & Under 2.5
7%
Away Win & Over 2.5
10%
Away Win & Under 2.5
6%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ CF (29.07.23): Celta Vigo1
Lyon0
Recent Form
Celta Vigo
⚽ LL (06.03.26): Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
⚽ LL (01.03.26): Girona1
Celta Vigo2
⚽ EL (26.02.26): Celta Vigo1
PAOK (3-1)0
⚽ LL (22.02.26): Celta Vigo2
Mallorca0
⚽ EL (19.02.26): PAOK1
Celta Vigo2
Lyon
⚽ L1 (08.03.26): Lyon1
Paris FC1
⚽ CDF (05.03.26): Lyon2
Lens (5-4)2
⚽ L1 (01.03.26): Marseille3
Lyon2
⚽ L1 (22.02.26): Strasbourg3
Lyon1
⚽ L1 (15.02.26): Lyon2
Nice0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Thursday, 12th March 2026, Celta Vigo host Lyon in UEFA Europa League. We recommend Celta Vigo to win or draw as the standout selection.
Celta Vigo arrive in strong form, having recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Lyon are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 2L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour Celta Vigo, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Lyon's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.
Our verdict: celta vigo to win or draw at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Celta Vigo vs Lyon?
Our selection is 1X — Celta Vigo to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 80%.
What is Celta Vigo's current form?
Celta Vigo have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Lyon been performing recently?
Lyon have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Celta Vigo lead with 1 wins versus Lyon's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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