D
Dinamo Zagreb
Home
D
D
W
W
W
7W 3D 0L
▲ Improving
VS
—
7:00 pm
—
Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb)
T
Thun
Away
W
D
L
D
W
2W 3D 5L
▼ Declining
Dinamo Zagreb
50%
Draw
30%
Thun
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
71.4%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-23.4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Dinamo Zagreb to win
1.40
Over 1.5 Goals85%
Dinamo Zagreb Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun
Competition: UCL Qualifiers
Date: Tuesday, 28th July 2026
KO: 7:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Dinamo Zagreb to win)
Odds: 1.40
Confidence: 48%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Also: Dinamo Zagreb Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Dinamo Zagreb
1
Draws
0
Thun
1
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
0%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Dinamo Zagreb won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Dinamo Zagreb
Metric
Thun
2.7
Goals For / Game
1.7
0.5
Goals Against / Game
2.2
60%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-3-0
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
3.6
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
D0
0-0
2.9%
0-1
3.2%
0-2
1.7%
0-3
0.6%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
D1
1-0
7.0%
1-1
7.7%
1-2
4.3%
1-3
1.6%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
D2
2-0
8.6%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
D3
3-0
7.0%
3-1
7.7%
3-2
4.3%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
D4
4-0
4.3%
4-1
4.7%
4-2
2.6%
4-3
1.0%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
D5
5-0
2.1%
5-1
2.3%
5-2
1.3%
5-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
2-1(9.5%)
2-0(8.6%)
3-1(7.7%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
D=Home goals ↓ T=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Dinamo Zagreb Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Thun Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
35%
Home Win & BTTS No
23%
Draw & BTTS Yes
15%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
10%
Away Win & BTTS No
7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
29%
Home Win & Under 2.5
29%
Draw & Over 2.5
13%
Draw & Under 2.5
13%
Away Win & Over 2.5
9%
Away Win & Under 2.5
9%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Recent Form
Dinamo Zagreb
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Din. Zagreb0
LNZ Cherkasy0
Din. Zagreb4
Koper2
Grosuplje0
Din. Zagreb9
Radomlje0
Din. Zagreb3
Din. Zagreb0
Lok. Zagreb0
Slaven Belupo1
Din. Zagreb4
Din. Zagreb2
Rijeka0
Din. Zagreb2
Hajduk Split0
Gorica1
Din. Zagreb2
Thun
Luzern1
Thun3
Thun1
Din. Zagreb1
Thun1
Mannheim2
Thun1
Elversberg1
Thun6
Xamax2
St. Gallen1
Thun1
Thun3
Young Boys8
Sion2
Thun0
Basel3
Thun1
Thun0
Lugano1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 28th July 2026, Dinamo Zagreb host Thun at Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb) in UCL Qualifiers. We recommend Dinamo Zagreb to win as the standout selection.
Dinamo Zagreb arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Thun are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Dinamo Zagreb, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Thun's 0, with 1 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: dinamo zagreb to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this UCL Qualifiers match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.40, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 7:00 pm over at Stadion Maksimir (Zagreb).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Dinamo Zagreb vs Thun?
Our selection is 1 — Dinamo Zagreb to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Dinamo Zagreb's current form?
Dinamo Zagreb have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Thun been performing recently?
Thun have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Dinamo Zagreb lead with 0 wins versus Thun's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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