F
France
Home
W
W
W
W
W
9W 0D 1L
▼ Declining
VS
—
8:00 pm
—
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
S
Spain
Away
W
W
W
W
W
7W 3D 0L
▼ Declining
Implied Prob
80%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-4%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals
1.25
Over 2.5 Goals65%
Spain Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
France vs Spain
Competition: World Cup 2026
Date: Tuesday, 14th July 2026
KO: 8:00 pm
Pick: Over 1.5 (over 1.5 goals)
Odds: 1.25
Confidence: 76%
Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: Spain Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
2
France
1
Draws
7
Spain
10
Meetings
2.6
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 70% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
France
Metric
Spain
2.5
Goals For / Game
1.8
0.7
Goals Against / Game
0.3
40%
Clean Sheets
70%
9-0-1
W — D — L
7-3-0
Win Rate
2.7
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
F0
0-0
7.1%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
5.5%
0-3
2.3%
0-4
0.7%
0-5
0.2%
F1
1-0
9.9%
1-1
12.4%
1-2
7.7%
1-3
3.2%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
F2
2-0
6.9%
2-1
8.7%
2-2
5.4%
2-3
2.3%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
F3
3-0
3.2%
3-1
4.0%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
F4
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
F5
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(12.4%)
1-0(9.9%)
0-1(8.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
F=Home goals ↓ S=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
23%
Home Win & BTTS No
28%
Draw & BTTS Yes
4%
Draw & BTTS No
5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
18%
Away Win & BTTS No
22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
33%
Home Win & Under 2.5
18%
Draw & Over 2.5
6%
Draw & Under 2.5
3%
Away Win & Over 2.5
26%
Away Win & Under 2.5
14%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Spain5
France4
Spain2
France1
Spain1
France2
France0
Spain2
France1
Spain0
France0
Spain1
Spain1
France1
Spain2
France0
France0
Spain2
Spain1
France0
Recent Form
France
France2
Morocco0
Paraguay0
France1
France3
Sweden0
Norway1
France4
France3
Iraq0
France3
Senegal1
France3
Northern Ireland1
France1
Ivory Coast2
Colombia1
France3
Brazil1
France2
Spain
Spain2
Belgium1
Portugal0
Spain1
Spain3
Austria0
Uruguay0
Spain1
Spain4
Saudi Arabia0
Spain0
Cape Verde0
Peru1
Spain3
Spain1
Iraq1
Spain0
Egypt0
Spain3
Serbia0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 14th July 2026, France host Spain at AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX) in World Cup 2026. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
France arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Spain are travelling well, with a record of 7W 3D 0L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour France, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Spain's 7, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this World Cup 2026 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 5 wins from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 5 wins from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.25, sitting at roughly 80% in our model. The match gets going at 8:00 pm over at AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for France vs Spain?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 76%.
What is France's current form?
France have won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Spain been performing recently?
Spain have recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
France lead with 2 wins versus Spain's 7, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
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