WON Tip WON Gabala 2-0 Mingachevir
G

Gabala

Home
W W D L D
3W 2D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
2-0
M
Mingachevir
Away
W W L W L
6W 1D 3L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 28th May 2026
1
Backing Gabala to win
Gabala 50%
Draw 30%
Mingachevir 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Gabala to win
1.31
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Gabala vs Mingachevir Competition: Azerbaijan Cup Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Gabala to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 57% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Gabala
0
Draws
0
Mingachevir
4
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
25%
BTTS
25%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Gabala won 4 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Gabala
Metric
Mingachevir
1.2
Goals For / Game
2.6
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.2
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
3-2-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
30%
60%
3.2
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
G0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.4%
0-2 8.2%
0-3 5.3%
0-4 2.6%
0-5 1.0%
G1
1-0 5.1%
1-1 10.0%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.1%
1-5 1.2%
G2
2-0 3.1%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.7%
G3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 2.4%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
G4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
G5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(6.0%) 1-0(5.1%) 2-0(3.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip G=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Gabala Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Mingachevir Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Gabala
Overall
3.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.7
Mingachevir
Overall
6.3
Scoring
8.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 19%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 16%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 31%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.10.25CUP
Gabala5
Mingachevir1
28.03.251L
Gabala2
Mingachevir0
24.12.241L
Mingachevir0
Gabala2
26.09.241L
Gabala2
Mingachevir0
Recent Form
Gabala
21.05.26PL
Gabala3
Shamakhi1
W
15.05.26PL
Karvan1
Gabala2
W
09.05.26PL
Gabala1
Qarabag1
D
03.05.26PL
Zira1
Gabala0
L
25.04.26PL
Gabala1
Araz1
D
19.04.26PL
Sumqayit1
Gabala0
L
12.04.26PL
Gabala0
Imisli FK1
L
05.04.26PL
Kapaz0
Gabala2
W
21.03.26PL
Turan Tovuz3
Gabala2
L
15.03.26PL
Gabala1
Neftci Baku3
L
Mingachevir
22.05.261L
Mingachevir4
Sabail1
W
15.05.261L
Mingachevir3
MOIK Baku1
W
05.05.261L
Sahdag Qusar2
Mingachevir0
L
29.04.261L
Mingachevir7
Zaqatala1
W
22.04.261L
Cebrayil2
Mingachevir1
L
16.04.261L
Mingachevir2
Difai Agsu1
W
09.04.261L
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
03.04.261L
Mingachevir5
Safa Baku2
W
18.03.261L
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.261L
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Gabala host Mingachevir in Azerbaijan Cup. We recommend Gabala to win as the standout selection.

Gabala arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Mingachevir are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Gabala, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Mingachevir's 0, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 25% of those meetings.

Our verdict: gabala to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan Cup match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.31. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Gabala vs Mingachevir?
Our selection is 1 — Gabala to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Gabala's current form?
Gabala have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Mingachevir been performing recently?
Mingachevir have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Gabala lead with 4 wins versus Mingachevir's 0, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
⚠️
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