H
Hercilio Luz
Home
W
W
W
W
W
8W 1D 1L
→ Steady
VS
—
11:30 pm
—
N/A
G
Gremio Juventus
Away
W
D
W
L
L
3W 1D 6L
▲ Improving
Hercilio Luz
50%
Draw
30%
Gremio Juventus
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
80.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-25.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Hercilio Luz to win
1.24
Under 2.5 Goals65%
BTTS — No70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus
Competition: Brazil Catarinense 2
Date: Wednesday, 15th July 2026
KO: 11:30 pm
Pick: 1 (Hercilio Luz to win)
Odds: 1.24
Confidence: 55%
Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%)
Also: BTTS — No (70%)
Head to Head
Record
2
Hercilio Luz
1
Draws
3
Gremio Juventus
6
Meetings
2.2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
33%
Over 2.5
Against Tip
Hercilio Luz won 2 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Hercilio Luz
Metric
Gremio Juventus
2
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
H0
0-0
8.2%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
3.3%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
H1
1-0
13.1%
1-1
11.8%
1-2
5.3%
1-3
1.6%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
H2
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.5%
2-2
4.3%
2-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
H3
3-0
5.6%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
2.3%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
H4
4-0
2.2%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
0.9%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
H5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(13.1%)
2-0(10.5%)
2-1(9.5%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
H=Home goals ↓ G=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Hercilio Luz Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Gremio Juventus Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Home Win & BTTS No
47%
Draw & BTTS Yes
2%
Draw & BTTS No
6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
8%
Away Win & BTTS No
18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
44%
Draw & Over 2.5
3%
Draw & Under 2.5
5%
Away Win & Over 2.5
9%
Away Win & Under 2.5
16%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus2
Gremio Juventus1
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus3
Hercilio Luz1
Gremio Juventus2
Hercilio Luz0
Recent Form
Hercilio Luz
Blumenau0
Hercilio Luz2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Hercilio Luz2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
Jaragua-SC0
Hercilio Luz2
Hercilio Luz2
Nacao1
Caravaggio2
Hercilio Luz2
Hercilio Luz2
Tubarao0
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
Hercilio Luz0
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus
Gremio Juventus1
Guarani de Palhoca0
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus1
Gremio Juventus8
Jaragua-SC1
Gremio Juventus0
Tubarao2
Nacao1
Gremio Juventus0
Gremio Juventus0
Caravaggio3
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
Fluminense-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz1
Guarani de Palhoca1
Gremio Juventus0
Hercilio Luz (Home)
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
Hercilio Luz2
Nacao1
Hercilio Luz2
Tubarao0
Hercilio Luz0
Blumenau1
Hercilio Luz6
Guarani de Palhoca0
Hercilio Luz4
Jaragua-SC1
Hercilio Luz0
Criciuma1
Hercilio Luz2
Chapecoense-SC2
Hercilio Luz2
Joinville1
Gremio Juventus (Away)
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus1
Nacao1
Gremio Juventus0
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
Fluminense-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
Guarani de Palhoca1
Gremio Juventus0
Jaragua-SC0
Gremio Juventus1
Tubarao4
Gremio Juventus0
Camboriu1
Gremio Juventus1
Blumenau1
Gremio Juventus0
Nacao0
Gremio Juventus0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Wednesday, 15th July 2026, Hercilio Luz host Gremio Juventus at N/A in Brazil Catarinense 2. We recommend Hercilio Luz to win as the standout selection.
Hercilio Luz arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Gremio Juventus are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Hercilio Luz, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Gremio Juventus's 3, with 1 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.
Our verdict: hercilio luz to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Brazil Catarinense 2 match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 5 wins from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.24, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 11:30 pm over at N/A.
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hercilio Luz vs Gremio Juventus?
Our selection is 1 — Hercilio Luz to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Hercilio Luz's current form?
Hercilio Luz have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gremio Juventus been performing recently?
Gremio Juventus have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hercilio Luz lead with 2 wins versus Gremio Juventus's 3, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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