WON Tip WON Italy W 3-0 Serbia W
I

Italy W

Home
D W D L L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
3-0
S
Serbia W
Away
L L D L W
3W 2D 5L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 5th June 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 70.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +7.6% Value detected
Kelly % 25.6% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Italy W
0
Draws
0
Serbia W
1
Meetings
6
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 100% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Italy W
Metric
Serbia W
1.1
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
2-3-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
20%
30%
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
I0
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.8%
0-2 4.3%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
I1
1-0 11.0%
1-1 12.1%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
I2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
I3
3-0 4.4%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
I4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 1.9%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
I5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.1%) 1-0(11.0%) 2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip I=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Italy W
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.7
Defence
6.0
Serbia W
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 18%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 22%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 14%
Home Win & Under 2.5 14%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 17%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy6
Recent Form
Italy W
18.04.26WC
Denmark W0
Italy W0
D
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy W6
W
07.03.26WC
Italy W1
Denmark W1
D
03.03.26WC
Italy W0
Sweden W1
L
02.12.25FI
USA W2
Italy W0
L
29.11.25FI
USA W3
Italy W0
L
28.10.25FI
Italy W0
Brazil W1
L
24.10.25FI
Italy W1
Japan W1
D
22.07.25EUR
England W2
Italy W1
L
16.07.25EUR
Norway W1
Italy W2
W
Serbia W
18.04.26WC
Sweden W1
Serbia W0
L
14.04.26WC
Serbia W0
Italy W6
L
07.03.26WC
Serbia W0
Sweden W0
D
03.03.26WC
Denmark W3
Serbia W1
L
02.12.25FI
Serbia W2
Czech Republic W1
W
28.11.25FI
Czech Republic W0
Serbia W1
W
27.10.25FI
Slovenia W2
Serbia W4
W
01.07.25FI
Serbia W0
Russia W3
L
27.06.25FI
Serbia W1
Iceland W3
L
03.06.25UNL
Finland W1
Serbia W1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 5th June 2026, Italy W host Serbia W in Euro Women WCQ. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Italy W arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Serbia W are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Italy W, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Serbia W's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.42 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Euro Women WCQ match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.42. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Italy W vs Serbia W?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Italy W's current form?
Italy W have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Serbia W been performing recently?
Serbia W have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Italy W lead with 1 wins versus Serbia W's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
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