LOST Tip LOST Kalju 1-2 Parnu JK Vaprus
K

Kalju

Home
W L D W W
7W 2D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
1-2
P
Parnu JK Vaprus
Away
W D L L L
3W 1D 6L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 26th April 2026
1
Backing Kalju to win
Kalju 50%
Draw 30%
Parnu JK Vaprus 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Kalju to win
1.24
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Sunday, 26th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Kalju to win) Odds: 1.24 Confidence: 61% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Kalju
2
Draws
1
Parnu JK Vaprus
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Kalju won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kalju
Metric
Parnu JK Vaprus
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-2-1
W — D — L
3-1-6
Win Rate
70%
30%
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
K0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 2.0%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 9.7%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
K3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
K4
4-0 4.0%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 1.7%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(10.4%) 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kalju Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Parnu JK Vaprus Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kalju
Overall
7.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.7
Parnu JK Vaprus
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 40%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
05.10.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus0
10.08.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
27.06.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Kalju2
01.03.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju3
24.01.25CF
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju3
09.11.24ML
Kalju2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
15.09.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju4
03.07.24ML
Kalju4
Parnu JK Vaprus2
30.03.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju2
07.10.23ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Recent Form
Kalju
05.10.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
10.08.25ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
L
27.06.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Kalju2
D
01.03.25ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju3
L
24.01.25CF
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju3
L
09.11.24ML
Kalju2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
15.09.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Kalju4
L
03.07.24ML
Kalju4
Parnu JK Vaprus2
W
30.03.24ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kalju2
L
07.10.23ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus1
D
Parnu JK Vaprus
21.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
L
08.04.26ML
Levadia2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
04.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Harju JK Laagri2
L
21.03.26ML
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
14.03.26ML
Nomme Utd7
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
10.03.26CUP
Parnu JK Vaprus2
Tartu Welco1
W
07.03.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Paide2
W
15.02.26CF
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Narva2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 26th April 2026, Kalju host Parnu JK Vaprus in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Kalju to win as the standout selection.

Kalju arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Parnu JK Vaprus are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kalju, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kalju to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Meistriliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.24. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus?
Our selection is 1 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is Kalju's current form?
Kalju have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parnu JK Vaprus been performing recently?
Parnu JK Vaprus have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kalju lead with 7 wins versus Parnu JK Vaprus's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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