LOST Tip LOST Kapaz 1-0 Qarabag
K

Kapaz

Home
D D L W L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
1-0
Q
Qarabag
Away
W W W D L
6W 1D 3L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Friday, 20th March 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 64.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +17.9% Value detected
Kelly % 49.9% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Kapaz
2
Draws
7
Qarabag
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kapaz
Metric
Qarabag
0.9
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
2-3-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
20%
60%
3.1
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
K0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 8.3%
0-2 7.3%
0-3 4.2%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.7%
K1
1-0 6.2%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.4%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.4%
1-5 0.8%
K2
2-0 4.0%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
K3
3-0 1.7%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
K4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.0%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.8%) 1-2(9.4%) 0-1(8.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   Q=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Kapaz
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
Qarabag
Overall
6.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
04.10.25
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz0
18.05.25
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
15.03.25
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag0
18.10.24
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag5
09.08.24
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
29.03.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag6
27.01.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag2
04.11.23
PL: Qarabag7
Kapaz1
27.08.23
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz1
Recent Form
Kapaz
15.03.26
PL: Kapaz1
Turan Tovuz1
D
09.03.26
PL: Zira2
Kapaz2
D
05.03.26
CUP: Kapaz0
Turan Tovuz2
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
W
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
L
15.02.26
PL: Kapaz1
Neftci Baku3
L
09.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Kapaz0
D
05.02.26
CUP: Turan Tovuz1
Kapaz0
L
31.01.26
PL: Kapaz0
Shamakhi2
L
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
W
Qarabag
14.03.26
PL: Zira1
Qarabag3
W
08.03.26
PL: Qarabag6
Araz0
W
04.03.26
CUP: Qarabag3
Shamakhi1
W
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
D
24.02.26
CL: Newcastle3
Qarabag2
L
18.02.26
CL: Qarabag1
Newcastle6
L
14.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Qarabag1
W
10.02.26
PL: Shamakhi1
Qarabag2
W
05.02.26
CUP: Shamakhi2
Qarabag1
L
01.02.26
PL: Qarabag1
Turan Tovuz0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 20th March 2026, Kapaz host Qarabag in Azerbaijan League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Kapaz arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Qarabag are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 1D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kapaz, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Qarabag's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.56 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan League match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing Over 2.5, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.56. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.56. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is Kapaz's current form?
Kapaz have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Qarabag been performing recently?
Qarabag have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kapaz lead with 1 wins versus Qarabag's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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