K
Kauno Zalgiris
Home
W
W
D
D
W
5W 3D 2L
โผ Declining
VS
โ
5:00 pm
โ
Darius and Girฤnas Stadium (Kaunas)
F
FA Siauliai
Away
L
L
W
L
L
3W 2D 5L
โฒ Improving
Kauno Zalgiris
50%
Draw
20%
FA Siauliai
30%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
3.33
Implied Prob
82.6%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-27.6%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 โ Kauno Zalgiris to win
1.21
Over 1.5 Goals80%
๐ Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Kauno Zalgiris vs FA Siauliai
Competition: Lithuania Toplyga
Date: Saturday, 18th July 2026
KO: 5:00 pm
Pick: 1 (Kauno Zalgiris to win)
Odds: 1.21
Confidence: 55%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Kauno Zalgiris
2
Draws
1
FA Siauliai
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Kauno Zalgiris won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
FA Siauliai
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-3-2
W โ D โ L
3-2-5
Win Rate
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
K0
0-0
6.4%
0-1
7.0%
0-2
3.9%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
K1
1-0
10.6%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
6.4%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
K2
2-0
8.7%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
5.3%
2-3
1.9%
2-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
K3
3-0
4.8%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
1.1%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
K4
4-0
2.0%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.2%
4-3
0.4%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
K5
5-0
0.7%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(10.6%)
2-1(9.6%)
2-0(8.7%)
โ Best match
โ Possible
โ Low ยท โ Contradicts tip
K=Home goals โ F=Away โ
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
2
50%
Draw
5
20%
FA Siauliai Win
3.33
30%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
29%
Home Win & BTTS No
19%
Draw & BTTS Yes
14%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Away Win & BTTS No
11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
29%
Home Win & Under 2.5
19%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
10%
Away Win & Over 2.5
17%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
โ
Kelly %
โ
Stake
โ
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris5
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris2
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai0
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris3
Kauno Zalgiris2
FA Siauliai1
Kauno Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
FA Siauliai1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Kauno Zalgiris2
FA Siauliai1
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
Drita2
Kauno Zalgiris3
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
Dziugas Telsiai0
Kauno Zalgiris0
BFA Vilnius0
Kauno Zalgiris3
Transinvest1
Kauno Zalgiris2
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
Hegelmann1
Kauno Zalgiris1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
Suduva2
Kauno Zalgiris1
FA Siauliai
FA Siauliai0
Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
Transinvest3
FA Siauliai2
Dziugas Telsiai1
FK Panevezys3
FA Siauliai2
Suduva2
FA Siauliai1
Dziugas Telsiai4
FA Siauliai3
Banga1
FA Siauliai1
FA Siauliai2
Riteriai0
Ataka Vilnius1
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris (Home)
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris2
Dziugas Telsiai2
Kauno Zalgiris4
Riteriai0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Transinvest2
Kauno Zalgiris5
Hegelmann0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Suduva1
FA Siauliai (Away)
FK Panevezys3
FA Siauliai2
Suduva2
FA Siauliai1
Dziugas Telsiai4
FA Siauliai3
Banga1
FA Siauliai1
Ataka Vilnius1
FA Siauliai2
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
Hegelmann1
FA Siauliai1
Zalgiris3
FA Siauliai1
Jonava0
FA Siauliai4
Dziugas Telsiai1
FA Siauliai0
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 18th July 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host FA Siauliai at Darius and Girฤnas Stadium (Kaunas) in Lithuania Toplyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.
Kauno Zalgiris arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
FA Siauliai are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to FA Siauliai's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.
Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Lithuania Toplyga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.21, sitting at roughly 50,20,30% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Darius and Girฤnas Stadium (Kaunas).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today โ but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs FA Siauliai?
Our selection is 1 โ Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 55%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has FA Siauliai been performing recently?
FA Siauliai have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 7 wins versus FA Siauliai's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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