K
Kauno Zalgiris
Home
D
D
W
W
L
4W 4D 2L
→ Steady
VS
—
5:00 pm
—
Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas)
F
FK Panevezys
Away
D
L
L
W
L
4W 1D 5L
▲ Improving
Kauno Zalgiris
50%
Draw
20%
FK Panevezys
30%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
5
A Fair Odds
3.33
Implied Prob
73%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-21%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
7
Kauno Zalgiris
2
Draws
1
FK Panevezys
10
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Kauno Zalgiris won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
FK Panevezys
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.6
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-4-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
2.5
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
K0
0-0
8.6%
0-1
8.6%
0-2
4.3%
0-3
1.4%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
K1
1-0
12.5%
1-1
12.5%
1-2
6.3%
1-3
2.1%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
K2
2-0
9.1%
2-1
9.1%
2-2
4.5%
2-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
K3
3-0
4.4%
3-1
4.4%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
K4
4-0
1.6%
4-1
1.6%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
K5
5-0
0.5%
5-1
0.5%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(12.5%)
2-0(9.1%)
2-1(9.1%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
K=Home goals ↓ F=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
2
50%
Draw
5
20%
FK Panevezys Win
3.33
30%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Home Win & BTTS No
21%
Draw & BTTS Yes
11%
Draw & BTTS No
13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
17%
Away Win & BTTS No
21%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
15%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
10%
Away Win & Over 2.5
23%
Away Win & Under 2.5
15%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
FK Panevezys1
Kauno Zalgiris1
Kauno Zalgiris4
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris1
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys2
FK Panevezys1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Kauno Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris2
Kauno Zalgiris2
FK Panevezys0
Kauno Zalgiris0
FK Panevezys0
FK Panevezys1
Kauno Zalgiris2
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
Dziugas Telsiai0
Kauno Zalgiris0
BFA Vilnius0
Kauno Zalgiris3
Transinvest1
Kauno Zalgiris2
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
Hegelmann1
Kauno Zalgiris1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
Suduva2
Kauno Zalgiris1
Riteriai0
Kauno Zalgiris4
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
FK Panevezys
FK Panevezys1
Hegelmann1
FK Panevezys1
Suduva2
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
FK Panevezys3
FA Siauliai2
Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
FK Panevezys1
Transinvest2
Dziugas Telsiai4
FK Panevezys0
FK Panevezys1
Banga0
Atmosfera0
FK Panevezys3
Riteriai0
FK Panevezys3
Kauno Zalgiris (Home)
Kauno Zalgiris1
Drita1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Banga1
Kauno Zalgiris0
Zalgiris1
Kauno Zalgiris0
FA Siauliai0
Kauno Zalgiris2
Dziugas Telsiai2
Kauno Zalgiris4
Riteriai0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Transinvest2
Kauno Zalgiris5
Hegelmann0
Kauno Zalgiris1
Suduva1
Kauno Zalgiris4
FK Panevezys0
FK Panevezys (Away)
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
Zalgiris3
FK Panevezys0
Dziugas Telsiai4
FK Panevezys0
Atmosfera0
FK Panevezys3
Riteriai0
FK Panevezys3
Hegelmann3
FK Panevezys2
FSK Radviliskis0
FK Panevezys2
Suduva1
FK Panevezys0
FA Siauliai3
FK Panevezys1
Transinvest1
FK Panevezys2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Saturday, 11th July 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host FK Panevezys at Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas) in Lithuania Toplyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.
Kauno Zalgiris arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.
FK Panevezys are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 1D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to FK Panevezys's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.
Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Lithuania Toplyga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.37, sitting at roughly 50,20,30% in our model. The match gets going at 5:00 pm over at Darius and Girėnas Stadium (Kaunas).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs FK Panevezys?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has FK Panevezys been performing recently?
FK Panevezys have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 7 wins versus FK Panevezys's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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