WON Tip WON Kauno Zalgiris 5-0 Hegelmann
K

Kauno Zalgiris

Home
W D W W W
9W 1D 0L → Steady
VS
5-0
H
Hegelmann
Away
W D D D D
2W 5D 3L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 11th April 2026
1
Backing Kauno Zalgiris to win
Kauno Zalgiris 50%
Draw 30%
Hegelmann 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -8.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
7
Kauno Zalgiris
2
Draws
1
Hegelmann
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Kauno Zalgiris won 7 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Kauno Zalgiris
Metric
Hegelmann
2.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1
50%
Clean Sheets
20%
9-1-0
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
90%
20%
2.4
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
H0
H1
H2
H3
H4
H5
K0
0-0 9.5%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
K1
1-0 15.7%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 3.9%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
K2
2-0 13.0%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 3.2%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 7.1%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(15.7%) 2-0(13.0%) 2-1(9.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   H=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kauno Zalgiris Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Hegelmann Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Kauno Zalgiris
Overall
9.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
8.3
Hegelmann
Overall
3.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 29%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.10.25
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris1
27.08.25
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris2
Hegelmann1
19.06.25
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris2
16.04.25
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris3
Hegelmann1
24.08.24
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
Kauno Žalgiris1
23.06.24
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann1
28.04.24
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
Kauno Žalgiris1
09.03.24
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
Hegelmann2
12.11.23
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann2
29.10.23
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
Hegelmann0
Recent Form
Kauno Zalgiris
05.04.26
TOPLYGA: FK Žalgiris0
Kauno Žalgiris3
W
21.03.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
FK Sūduva1
D
15.03.26
TOPLYGA: FA Šiauliai0
Kauno Žalgiris5
W
10.03.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris4
FK Panevėžys0
W
07.03.26
TOPLYGA: FC Džiugas1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
28.02.26
TOPLYGA: Kauno Žalgiris1
Banga Gargždai0
W
23.02.26
TOPLYGA: FK Riteriai1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
16.02.26
Supercup: Kauno Žalgiris1
FK Panevėžys0
W
06.02.26
Friendly: Kauno Žalgiris2
Zimbru Chișinău1
W
03.02.26
Friendly: Esbjerg fB1
Kauno Žalgiris2
W
Hegelmann
04.04.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann3
TransINVEST1
W
22.03.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
FK Žalgiris0
D
14.03.26
TOPLYGA: FK Sūduva0
Hegelmann0
D
11.03.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
FA Šiauliai1
D
07.03.26
TOPLYGA: FK Panevėžys1
Hegelmann1
D
28.02.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann1
FC Džiugas1
D
22.02.26
TOPLYGA: Hegelmann0
Banga Gargždai2
L
15.02.26
Friendly: Hegelmann2
Grobiņa SC1
W
08.02.26
Friendly: FK Žalgiris1
Hegelmann0
L
03.02.26
Friendly: BFC Daugavpils2
Hegelmann1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, Kauno Zalgiris host Hegelmann in Lithuania TopLyga. We recommend Kauno Zalgiris to win as the standout selection.

Kauno Zalgiris arrive in strong form, having recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Hegelmann are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kauno Zalgiris, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Hegelmann's 1, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kauno zalgiris to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Lithuania TopLyga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.33. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kauno Zalgiris vs Hegelmann?
Our selection is 1 — Kauno Zalgiris to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is Kauno Zalgiris's current form?
Kauno Zalgiris have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Hegelmann been performing recently?
Hegelmann have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kauno Zalgiris lead with 7 wins versus Hegelmann's 1, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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