WON Tip WON St Pauli 0-5 Bayern Munich
S

St Pauli

Home
D L L D W
3W 2D 5L ▼ Declining
VS
0-5
B
Bayern Munich
Away
W W W W D
9W 1D 0L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 11th April 2026
2
Backing Bayern Munich to win
St Pauli 20%
Draw 20%
Bayern Munich 60%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 1.67
Implied Prob 70.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +6.1% Value detected
Kelly % 20.9% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Bayern Munich to win
1.41
Over 2.5 Goals75% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
St Pauli vs Bayern Munich Competition: Bundesliga Date: Saturday, 11th April 2026 Pick: 2 (Bayern Munich to win) Odds: 1.41 Confidence: 77% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (75%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
1
St Pauli
0
Draws
8
Bayern Munich
9
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Bayern Munich won 8 of 9 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
St Pauli
Metric
Bayern Munich
0.8
Goals For / Game
3.3
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.1
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
3-2-5
W — D — L
9-1-0
Win Rate
30%
90%
3.4
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
S0
0-0 3.3%
0-1 8.2%
0-2 10.0%
0-3 8.2%
0-4 5.0%
0-5 2.5%
S1
1-0 3.2%
1-1 7.8%
1-2 9.5%
1-3 7.8%
1-4 4.8%
1-5 2.3%
S2
2-0 1.5%
2-1 3.7%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 2.3%
2-5 1.1%
S3
3-0 0.5%
3-1 1.2%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.4%
S4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
S5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-2(10.0%) 1-2(9.5%) 0-1(8.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
St Pauli Win
20%
5
Draw
20%
5
Bayern Munich Win
60%
1.67
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
St Pauli
Overall
3.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.7
Bayern Munich
Overall
9.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 50%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.11.25
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich3
St. Pauli1
29.03.25
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich3
St. Pauli2
09.11.24
Bundesliga: St. Pauli0
Bayern Munich1
07.05.11
Bundesliga: St. Pauli1
Bayern Munich8
11.12.10
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich3
St. Pauli0
09.09.06
DFB-Pokal: St. Pauli1
Bayern Munich (AET)2
12.04.06
DFB-Pokal: St. Pauli0
Bayern Munich3
06.02.02
Bundesliga: St. Pauli2
Bayern Munich1
18.08.01
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich2
St. Pauli0
Recent Form
St Pauli
05.04.26
Bundesliga: Union Berlin1
St. Pauli1
D
22.03.26
Bundesliga: St. Pauli1
SC Freiburg2
L
13.03.26
Bundesliga: B. M’gladbach2
St. Pauli0
L
08.03.26
Bundesliga: St. Pauli0
Eintracht Frankfurt0
D
28.02.26
Bundesliga: TSG Hoffenheim0
St. Pauli1
W
22.02.26
Bundesliga: St. Pauli2
Werder Bremen1
W
14.02.26
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen4
St. Pauli0
L
07.02.26
Bundesliga: St. Pauli2
VfB Stuttgart1
W
03.02.26
DFB-Pokal (QF): Bayer Leverkusen3
St. Pauli0
L
31.01.26
Bundesliga: FC Augsburg2
St. Pauli1
L
Bayern Munich
07.04.26
Champions League (QF): Real Madrid1
Bayern Munich2
W
04.04.26
Bundesliga: SC Freiburg2
Bayern Munich3
W
21.03.26
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich4
Union Berlin0
W
18.03.26
Champions League (R16): Bayern Munich4
Atalanta1
W
14.03.26
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen1
Bayern Munich1
D
10.03.26
Champions League (R16): Atalanta1
Bayern Munich6
W
06.03.26
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich4
B. M’gladbach1
W
28.02.26
Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund2
Bayern Munich3
W
21.02.26
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich3
Eintracht Frankfurt2
W
14.02.26
Bundesliga: Werder Bremen0
Bayern Munich3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, St Pauli host Bayern Munich in Bundesliga. We recommend Bayern Munich to win as the standout selection.

St Pauli arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Bayern Munich are travelling well, with a record of 9W 1D 0L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour St Pauli, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Bayern Munich's 8, with 0 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 56% of those meetings.

Our verdict: bayern munich to win at odds of 1.41 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bundesliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 2, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.41. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for St Pauli vs Bayern Munich?
Our selection is 2 — Bayern Munich to win, priced at approximately 1.41. Tip confidence rating: 77%.
What is St Pauli's current form?
St Pauli have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bayern Munich been performing recently?
Bayern Munich have recorded 9 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
St Pauli lead with 1 wins versus Bayern Munich's 8, with 0 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
⚠️
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