WON Tip WON KUPS 1-0 Gnistan
K

KUPS

Home
W D W W L
3W 1D 6L → Steady
VS
1-0
G
Gnistan
Away
L D W L L
3W 1D 5L ▼ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 11th April 2026
1
Backing KUPS to win
KUPS 50%
Draw 30%
Gnistan 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 71.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -21.9% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — KUPS to win
1.39
Under 2.5 Goals79% BTTS — No90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
KUPS vs Gnistan Competition: Finland Veikkausliiga Date: Saturday, 11th April 2026 Pick: 1 (KUPS to win) Odds: 1.39 Confidence: 50% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (79%) Also: BTTS — No (90%)
Head to Head
Record
6
KUPS
2
Draws
0
Gnistan
8
Meetings
4.3
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip KUPS won 6 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
KUPS
Metric
Gnistan
0.9
Goals For / Game
0
1.7
Goals Against / Game
0
30%
Clean Sheets
0%
3-1-6
W — D — L
3-1-5
Win Rate
30%
33%
1.4
Avg Goals
32%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
10%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
K0
0-0 27.3%
0-1 23.2%
0-2 9.9%
0-3 2.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
K1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
K2
2-0 2.8%
2-1 2.4%
2-2 1.0%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
K3
3-0 0.4%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.2%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
K4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.0%
4-2 0.0%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.3%) 2-0(2.8%) 2-1(2.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
KUPS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Gnistan Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
KUPS
Overall
3.3
Scoring
3.0
Defence
4.3
Gnistan
Overall
3.7
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 39%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 35%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.10.25
Veikkausliiga: KuPS1
Gnistan1
27.09.25
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan0
KuPS4
01.07.25
Veikkausliiga: KuPS6
Gnistan2
27.04.25
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan1
KuPS2
07.07.24
Veikkausliiga: KuPS3
Gnistan1
19.05.24
Veikkausliiga: Gnistan0
KuPS0
20.03.21
Finnish Cup: KuPS5
Gnistan0
16.04.11
Finnish Cup: Gnistan2
KuPS6
Recent Form
KUPS
04.04.26
Veikkausliiga: Ilves1
KuPS3
W
27.03.26
Friendly: SJK0
KuPS0
D
21.03.26
Friendly: KuPS1
Jippo0
W
14.03.26
Friendly: KuPS2
IFK Mariehamn0
W
28.02.26
League Cup: AC Oulu5
KuPS0
L
26.02.26
Conference League: Lech Poznań1
KuPS0
L
22.02.26
League Cup: KuPS3
FF Jaro4
L
19.02.26
Conference League: KuPS0
Lech Poznań2
L
14.02.26
League Cup: KuPS0
Ilves1
L
07.02.26
League Cup: SJK3
KuPS0
L
Gnistan
04.04.26
Veikkausliiga: Ilves1
KuPS3
W
27.03.26
Friendly: SJK0
KuPS0
D
21.03.26
Friendly: KuPS1
Jippo0
W
14.03.26
Friendly: KuPS2
IFK Mariehamn0
W
28.02.26
League Cup: AC Oulu5
KuPS0
L
26.02.26
Conference League: Lech Poznań1
KuPS0
L
22.02.26
League Cup: KuPS3
FF Jaro4
L
19.02.26
Conference League: KuPS0
Lech Poznań2
L
14.02.26
League Cup: KuPS0
Ilves1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, KUPS host Gnistan in Finland Veikkausliiga. We recommend KUPS to win as the standout selection.

KUPS arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Gnistan are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 5L across 9 matches.

Historical meetings favour KUPS, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Gnistan's 0, with 2 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kups to win at odds of 1.39 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Finland Veikkausliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.39. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for KUPS vs Gnistan?
Our selection is 1 — KUPS to win, priced at approximately 1.39. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is KUPS's current form?
KUPS have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Gnistan been performing recently?
Gnistan have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
KUPS lead with 6 wins versus Gnistan's 0, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
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