WON Tip WON Kuressaare 0-2 Kalju
K

Kuressaare

Home
L L L L W
3W 0D 7L ▼ Declining
VS
0-2
K
Kalju
Away
L W L W L
7W 1D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 17th May 2026
2
Backing Kalju to win
Kuressaare 20%
Draw 30%
Kalju 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 73.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -5.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
0
Kuressaare
0
Draws
10
Kalju
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Kalju won 10 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kuressaare
Metric
Kalju
1.1
Goals For / Game
2.2
1.8
Goals Against / Game
0.6
0%
Clean Sheets
50%
3-0-7
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
30%
70%
2.9
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
K0
0-0 5.8%
0-1 11.6%
0-2 11.6%
0-3 7.7%
0-4 3.9%
0-5 1.5%
K1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.6%
1-4 3.3%
1-5 1.3%
K2
2-0 2.1%
2-1 4.2%
2-2 4.2%
2-3 2.8%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.6%
K3
3-0 0.6%
3-1 1.2%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.2%
K4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
K5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(11.6%) 0-2(11.6%) 1-2(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Kuressaare Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Kalju Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kuressaare
Overall
3.0
Scoring
3.7
Defence
4.0
Kalju
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.3
Defence
8.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 15%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Away Win & BTTS No 33%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 17%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 40%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
21.03.26ML
Kalju4
Kuressaare0
25.10.25ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju1
31.08.25ML
Kalju2
Kuressaare0
18.05.25ML
Kalju4
Kuressaare0
12.04.25ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju2
02.11.24ML
Kuressaare1
Kalju2
18.08.24ML
Kalju5
Kuressaare1
18.05.24ML
Kalju3
Kuressaare0
02.03.24ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju6
26.09.23ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju2
Recent Form
Kuressaare
08.05.26ML
Tammeka1
Kuressaare0
L
02.05.26ML
Kuressaare1
Levadia2
L
25.04.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Kuressaare1
L
21.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Parnu JK Vaprus1
L
18.04.26ML
Narva1
Kuressaare2
W
11.04.26ML
Kuressaare3
Harju JK Laagri2
W
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
L
03.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Paide1
L
21.03.26ML
Kalju4
Kuressaare0
L
14.03.26ML
Kuressaare3
Tammeka2
W
Kalju
10.05.26ML
Flora0
Kalju1
L
01.05.26ML
Narva0
Kalju3
W
26.04.26ML
Kalju1
Parnu JK Vaprus2
L
22.04.26ML
Kalju7
Nomme Utd1
W
19.04.26ML
Paide1
Kalju0
L
12.04.26ML
Kalju1
Levadia1
D
08.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri0
Kalju2
W
03.04.26ML
Kalju2
Narva1
W
21.03.26ML
Kalju4
Kuressaare0
W
15.03.26ML
Flora0
Kalju1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 17th May 2026, Kuressaare host Kalju in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Kalju to win as the standout selection.

Kuressaare arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Kalju are travelling well, with a record of 7W 1D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Kuressaare, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Kalju's 10, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 20% of those meetings.

Our verdict: kalju to win at odds of 1.36 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Estonia Meistriliiga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 2, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.36. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kuressaare vs Kalju?
Our selection is 2 — Kalju to win, priced at approximately 1.36. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Kuressaare's current form?
Kuressaare have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Kalju been performing recently?
Kalju have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kuressaare lead with 0 wins versus Kalju's 10, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
⚠️
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