LOST
Tip LOST
Lahti 0-0 TPS
L
Lahti
Home
L
L
L
W
W
3W 2D 5L
→ Steady
VS
0-0
4:00 pm
Lahden Stadion (Lahti)
T
TPS
Away
L
L
W
L
L
3W 2D 5L
→ Steady
Implied Prob
80%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
+8%
Value detected
Kelly %
40%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Lahti
5
Draws
2
TPS
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lahti
Metric
TPS
1.6
Goals For / Game
1
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
3-2-5
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
L0
0-0
7.8%
0-1
9.8%
0-2
6.1%
0-3
2.5%
0-4
0.8%
0-5
0.2%
L1
1-0
10.2%
1-1
12.7%
1-2
7.9%
1-3
3.3%
1-4
1.0%
1-5
0.3%
L2
2-0
6.6%
2-1
8.3%
2-2
5.2%
2-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
L3
3-0
2.9%
3-1
3.6%
3-2
2.2%
3-3
0.9%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
L4
4-0
0.9%
4-1
1.2%
4-2
0.7%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
L5
5-0
0.2%
5-1
0.3%
5-2
0.2%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-1(12.7%)
1-0(10.2%)
0-1(9.8%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
L=Home goals ↓ T=Away →
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Home Win & BTTS No
19%
Draw & BTTS Yes
13%
Draw & BTTS No
13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
19%
Away Win & BTTS No
19%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
17%
Home Win & Under 2.5
21%
Draw & Over 2.5
11%
Draw & Under 2.5
14%
Away Win & Over 2.5
17%
Away Win & Under 2.5
20%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
TPS2
Lahti1
Lahti5
TPS1
TPS3
Lahti3
Lahti2
TPS2
TPS2
Lahti2
TPS3
Lahti2
Lahti2
TPS1
TPS1
Lahti1
Lahti1
TPS1
TPS1
Lahti3
Recent Form
Lahti
Gnistan1
Lahti0
Lahti2
SJK3
Ilves5
Lahti2
Lahti5
Ilves0
Mariehamn0
Lahti1
KuPS2
Lahti1
Lahti1
VPS1
Lahti3
Mikkeli1
Lahti1
Mariehamn1
HJK1
Lahti0
TPS
TPS1
KuPS2
Ilves1
TPS0
TPS1
VPS0
Ilves1
TPS0
Inter Turku2
TPS1
AC Oulu1
TPS0
TPS3
HJS0
TPS1
HJK0
Jaro2
TPS2
SalPa1
(6-7 Pen) TPS1
Lahti (Home)
Lahti2
SJK3
Lahti5
Ilves0
Lahti1
VPS1
Lahti3
Mikkeli1
Lahti1
Mariehamn1
Lahti2
AC Oulu1
Lahti0
Inter Turku2
Lahti1
Jippo1
Lahti3
SJK Akatemia1
Lahti2
GrIFK2
TPS (Away)
Ilves1
TPS0
Ilves1
TPS0
Inter Turku2
TPS1
AC Oulu1
TPS0
Jaro2
TPS2
SalPa1
(6-7 Pen) TPS1
Ekenas1
TPS2
Mariehamn1
TPS1
Ekenas2
TPS0
SJK1
TPS1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 23rd June 2026, Lahti host TPS at Lahden Stadion (Lahti) in Finland Veikkausliiga. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.
Lahti arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.
TPS are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Lahti, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to TPS's 2, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.
Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Finland Veikkausliiga match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is Over 1.5 at @1.25, sitting at roughly 100% in our model. The match gets going at 4:00 pm over at Lahden Stadion (Lahti).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lahti vs TPS?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 88%.
What is Lahti's current form?
Lahti have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has TPS been performing recently?
TPS have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lahti lead with 3 wins versus TPS's 2, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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