WON Tip WON Perolas Negras 5-1 Santa Cruz RJ
P

Perolas Negras

Home
L W W W L
5W 1D 4L → Steady
VS
5-1
6:45 pm
S
Santa Cruz RJ
Away
L D L W W
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Tuesday, 23rd June 2026
1
Backing Perolas Negras to win
Perolas Negras 50%
Draw 30%
Santa Cruz RJ 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -21.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Perolas Negras to win
1.24
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Perolas Negras vs Santa Cruz RJ Competition: Brazil Copa Rio Date: Tuesday, 23rd June 2026 KO: 6:45 pm Pick: 1 (Perolas Negras to win) Odds: 1.24 Confidence: 59% Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Perolas Negras
0
Draws
0
Santa Cruz RJ
1
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Perolas Negras won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Perolas Negras
Metric
Santa Cruz RJ
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.2
30%
Clean Sheets
50%
5-1-4
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
50%
60%
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
P0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 9.8%
0-2 6.1%
0-3 2.5%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
P1
1-0 10.2%
1-1 12.7%
1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.3%
1-4 1.0%
1-5 0.3%
P2
2-0 6.6%
2-1 8.3%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
P3
3-0 2.9%
3-1 3.6%
3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 0.9%
4-1 1.2%
4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.2%) 2-1(8.3%) 2-0(6.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Perolas Negras Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Santa Cruz RJ Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Perolas Negras
Overall
5.3
Scoring
4.7
Defence
6.0
Santa Cruz RJ
Overall
6.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.06.26CR
Santa Cruz RJ0
Perolas Negras5
Recent Form
Perolas Negras
20.06.26CAR2
Perolas Negras0
Americano1
L
17.06.26CR
Santa Cruz RJ0
Perolas Negras5
W
14.06.26CAR2
Audax RJ0
Perolas Negras1
W
06.06.26CAR2
Perolas Negras2
Serrano FC1
W
30.05.26CAR2
Bonsucesso4
Perolas Negras1
L
23.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras3
CEAC/Araruama1
W
16.05.26CAR2
Olaria2
Perolas Negras0
L
13.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras0
America RJ2
L
02.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras1
Resende1
D
29.04.26CAR2
Sao Goncalo0
Perolas Negras1
W
Santa Cruz RJ
17.06.26CR
Santa Cruz RJ0
Perolas Negras5
L
23.11.25CAR2
Santa Cruz RJ2
Macae2
D
16.11.25CAR2
Macae2
Santa Cruz RJ0
L
06.11.25CAR2
Paraty0
Santa Cruz RJ1
W
02.11.25CAR2
Santa Cruz RJ3
Barra Mansa0
W
27.10.25CAR2
7 de Abril0
Santa Cruz RJ1
W
19.10.25CAR2
Santa Cruz RJ0
Serra Macaense0
D
12.10.25CAR2
Belford Roxo2
Santa Cruz RJ3
W
05.10.25CAR2
Santa Cruz RJ1
Macae0
W
28.09.25CAR2
FC Rio de Janeiro1
Santa Cruz RJ2
W
Perolas Negras (Home)
20.06.26CAR2
Perolas Negras0
Americano1
L
06.06.26CAR2
Perolas Negras2
Serrano FC1
W
23.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras3
CEAC/Araruama1
W
13.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras0
America RJ2
L
02.05.26CAR2
Perolas Negras1
Resende1
D
07.07.25CAR2
Perolas Negras1
Duque de Caxias0
W
21.06.25CAR2
Perolas Negras1
Bangu1
D
08.06.25CAR2
Perolas Negras0
Resende1
L
26.05.25CAR2
Perolas Negras1
Americano1
D
20.05.25CAR2
Perolas Negras0
America RJ1
L
Santa Cruz RJ (Away)
16.11.25CAR2
Macae2
Santa Cruz RJ0
L
06.11.25CAR2
Paraty0
Santa Cruz RJ1
W
27.10.25CAR2
7 de Abril0
Santa Cruz RJ1
W
12.10.25CAR2
Belford Roxo2
Santa Cruz RJ3
W
28.09.25CAR2
FC Rio de Janeiro1
Santa Cruz RJ2
W
04.09.25CARC
Paraty0
Santa Cruz RJ (Pen 5 - 4)0
L
24.08.25CARC
Riostrense1
Santa Cruz RJ3
W
10.08.25CARC
EC Vera Cruz1
Santa Cruz RJ1
D
27.07.25CARC
Angra dos Reis3
Santa Cruz RJ2
L
14.07.25CARC
Barcelona EC0
Santa Cruz RJ10
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 23rd June 2026, Perolas Negras host Santa Cruz RJ in Brazil Copa Rio. We recommend Perolas Negras to win as the standout selection.

Perolas Negras arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Santa Cruz RJ are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Perolas Negras, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Santa Cruz RJ's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: perolas negras to win at odds of 1.24 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Let me be honest with you about how this Brazil Copa Rio match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.

The home team rolls in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.

Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.

Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.24, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 6:45 pm over at the host venue.

That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.

 

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Perolas Negras vs Santa Cruz RJ?
Our selection is 1 — Perolas Negras to win, priced at approximately 1.24. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Perolas Negras's current form?
Perolas Negras have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Santa Cruz RJ been performing recently?
Santa Cruz RJ have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Perolas Negras lead with 1 wins versus Santa Cruz RJ's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. StraightWinOdds provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.