WON
Tip WON
Linfield 3-1 Portadown
L
Linfield
Home
L
D
W
W
W
3W 1D 1L
▲ Improving
VS
3-1
P
Portadown
Away
D
L
L
W
W
2W 1D 2L
▲ Improving
Linfield
50%
Draw
30%
Portadown
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
81.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-25.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Linfield to win
1.23
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Linfield vs Portadown
Competition: NIFL Premiership
Date: Tuesday, 10th March 2026
Pick: 1 (Linfield to win)
Odds: 1.23
Confidence: 56%
Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Linfield
1
Draws
1
Portadown
5
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Linfield won 3 of the last 5 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Linfield
Metric
Portadown
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
40%
Clean Sheets
20%
3-1-1
W — D — L
2-1-2
Win Rate
2.4
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
L0
0-0
9.1%
0-1
7.3%
0-2
2.9%
0-3
0.8%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.0%
L1
1-0
14.5%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
4.6%
1-3
1.2%
1-4
0.3%
1-5
0.0%
L2
2-0
11.6%
2-1
9.3%
2-2
3.7%
2-3
1.0%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
L3
3-0
6.2%
3-1
5.0%
3-2
2.0%
3-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
3-5
0.0%
L4
4-0
2.5%
4-1
2.0%
4-2
0.8%
4-3
0.2%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
L5
5-0
0.8%
5-1
0.6%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(14.5%)
2-0(11.6%)
2-1(9.3%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
L=Home goals ↓ P=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Linfield Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Portadown Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
20%
Home Win & BTTS No
30%
Draw & BTTS Yes
7%
Draw & BTTS No
10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
13%
Away Win & BTTS No
20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
20%
Home Win & Under 2.5
30%
Draw & Over 2.5
7%
Draw & Under 2.5
10%
Away Win & Over 2.5
13%
Away Win & Under 2.5
20%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
⚽ NIFL (17.10.25): Portadown2
Linfield0
⚽ NIFL (06.09.25): Linfield3
Portadown0
⚽ NIFL (18.01.25): Portadown1
Linfield3
⚽ NIFL (30.11.24): Linfield2
Portadown1
⚽ NIFL (30.08.24): Portadown2
Linfield2
Recent Form
Linfield
⚽ NIFL (01.03.26): Cliftonville2
Linfield0
⚽ NIFL (24.02.26): Larne1
Linfield1
⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Linfield1
Glentoran0
⚽ NIFL (17.02.26): Dungannon1
Linfield4
⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Glenavon0
Linfield3
Portadown
⚽ NIFL (07.03.26): Ballymena1
Portadown1
⚽ NIFL (04.03.26): Portadown0
Cliftonville2
⚽ NIFL (28.02.26): Glenavon3
Portadown0
⚽ NIFL (21.02.26): Portadown1
Dungannon0
⚽ NIFL (14.02.26): Portadown2
Larne1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 10th March 2026, Linfield host Portadown in NIFL Premiership. We recommend Linfield to win as the standout selection.
Linfield arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.
Portadown are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 2W 1D 2L across 5 matches.
Historical meetings favour Linfield, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Portadown's 1, with 1 draws from 5 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.
Our verdict: linfield to win at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Linfield absolutely terrorizes the Northern Ireland Premiership, carrying spectacular goal-scoring form and elite attacking metrics into every single home fixture.
They completely dominate the historical head-to-head matchups against Portadown, frequently turning Windsor Park into a recurring nightmare for the visiting defenders.
Portadown exhibits wildly inconsistent form, constantly struggling to secure points or limit chances against the division’s elite sides. The underlying statistics reveal a massive disparity in expected goals and overall defensive solidity.
Linfield relentlessly attacks the flanks, generating numerous high-probability chances that their forwards ruthlessly convert. Portadown simply lacks the defensive data to suggest they can repel this level of pressure for a full ninety minutes.
Form watchers confidently highlight this match as a premier statistical mismatch. Backing Linfield to continue their dominant run of form provides one of the most mathematically sound wagers available today.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Linfield vs Portadown?
Our selection is 1 — Linfield to win, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Linfield's current form?
Linfield have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.
How has Portadown been performing recently?
Portadown have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 5 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Linfield lead with 3 wins versus Portadown's 1, with 1 draws across 5 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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