WON Tip WON Mingachevir 2-1 Difai Agsu
M

Mingachevir

Home
W W D L W
5W 4D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
2-1
D
Difai Agsu
Away
L L D L L
2W 1D 7L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Thursday, 16th April 2026
1
Backing Mingachevir to win
Mingachevir 50%
Draw 30%
Difai Agsu 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Mingachevir to win
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu Competition: Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Date: Thursday, 16th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Mingachevir to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 50% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Mingachevir
3
Draws
1
Difai Agsu
8
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
63%
BTTS
38%
Over 2.5
Neutral Mingachevir won 4 of the last 8 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Mingachevir
Metric
Difai Agsu
1.8
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.7
Goals Against / Game
2.7
50%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-4-1
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
50%
20%
3.3
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
M0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 3.9%
0-2 1.9%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
M1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 8.7%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
M2
2-0 9.8%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.6%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 7.4%
3-1 7.4%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 4.1%
4-1 4.1%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 1.9%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(9.8%) 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(8.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Mingachevir Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Difai Agsu Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Mingachevir
Overall
6.2
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.7
Difai Agsu
Overall
2.3
Scoring
4.3
Defence
1.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 14%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.12.25First Division
Difai Agsu1
Mingachevir1
24.09.25First Division
Mingachevir2
Difai Agsu0
01.05.25First Division
Difai Agsu1
Mingachevir4
28.02.25First Division
Mingachevir1
Difai Agsu0
28.11.24First Division
Difai Agsu3
Mingachevir3
01.05.24First Division
Difai Agsu4
Mingachevir1
29.02.24First Division
Mingachevir1
Difai Agsu1
09.11.23First Division
Difai Agsu0
Mingachevir1
Recent Form
Mingachevir
09.04.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
03.04.26First Division
Mingachevir5
Safa Baku2
W
18.03.26First Division
Baku Sporting1
Mingachevir1
D
12.03.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
L
05.03.26First Division
Baku Sporting0
Mingachevir1
W
25.02.26First Division
Mingachevir2
MOIK Baku0
W
19.02.26First Division
Safa Baku2
Mingachevir2
D
13.02.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Zaqatala0
D
07.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
W
24.12.25First Division
Mingachevir1
Sahdag Qusar1
D
Difai Agsu
09.04.26First Division
Difai Agsu0
Sahdag Qusar3
L
02.04.26First Division
Zaqatala1
Difai Agsu0
L
19.03.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Cebrayil1
D
12.03.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Baku Sporting3
L
06.03.26First Division
MOIK Baku2
Difai Agsu1
L
25.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu1
Safa Baku8
L
19.02.26First Division
Zaqatala2
Difai Agsu1
L
13.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
W
06.02.26First Division
Sahdag Qusar4
Difai Agsu0
L
25.12.25First Division
Difai Agsu5
Cebrayil2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Mingachevir host Difai Agsu in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Mingachevir to win as the standout selection.

Mingachevir arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Difai Agsu are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 1D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mingachevir, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Difai Agsu's 1, with 3 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 63% of those meetings.

Our verdict: mingachevir to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan 1 Liqa match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.35. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mingachevir vs Difai Agsu?
Our selection is 1 — Mingachevir to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Mingachevir's current form?
Mingachevir have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Difai Agsu been performing recently?
Difai Agsu have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mingachevir lead with 4 wins versus Difai Agsu's 1, with 3 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 63%.
⚠️
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