WON Tip WON Sabail 4-0 Shimal
S

Sabail

Home
L W D W W
4W 3D 3L โ†’ Steady
VS
4-0
S
Shimal
Away
L L D L W
3W 1D 6L โ–ผ Declining
StraightWinOdds Selection ยท Thursday, 16th April 2026
1
Backing Sabail to win
Sabail 50%
Draw 30%
Shimal 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 82.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -44.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Head to Head
Record
0
Sabail
1
Draws
1
Shimal
2
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Sabail won 0 of the last 2 meetings (1 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Sabail
Metric
Shimal
1.3
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-3-3
W โ€” D โ€” L
3-1-6
Win Rate
40%
30%
2.8
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
S0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 1.4%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
S1
1-0 10.3%
1-1 11.4%
1-2 6.3%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
S2
2-0 8.8%
2-1 9.7%
2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
S3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 5.5%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
S4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.3%) 2-1(9.7%) 2-0(8.8%)
โ–  Best match โ–  Possible โ–  Low ยท โ–  Contradicts tip S=Home goals โ†“   S=Away โ†’
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Sabail Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Shimal Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
Sabail
Overall
4.9 โ–ผ
Scoring
4.3 โ–ผ
Defence
6.7 โ–ผ
Shimal
Overall
3.3 โ–ฒ
Scoring
4.0 โ–ฒ
Defence
3.0 โ–ฒ
๐Ÿ”€
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 22%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 17%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
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Kelly %
โ€”
Stake
โ€”
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
02.10.25First Division
Shimal0
Sabail0
Recent Form
Sabail
09.04.26First Division
Safa Baku2
Sabail1
L
02.04.26First Division
Sabail1
Baku Sporting0
W
18.03.26First Division
Sabail2
MOIK Baku2
D
12.03.26First Division
Mingachevir0
Sabail1
W
06.03.26First Division
Cebrayil1
Sabail4
W
24.02.26First Division
Sabail0
Baku Sporting0
D
18.02.26First Division
MOIK Baku1
Sabail0
L
12.02.26First Division
Sabail0
Safa Baku0
D
05.02.26First Division
Zaqatala0
Sabail1
W
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
L
Shimal
09.04.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
03.04.26First Division
Sahdag Qusar1
Shimal0
L
19.03.26First Division
Shimal0
Zaqatala0
D
11.03.26First Division
Shimal0
Safa Baku2
L
05.03.26First Division
Zaqatala3
Shimal4
W
24.02.26First Division
Shimal3
Cebrayil2
W
19.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Sahdag Qusar1
L
13.02.26First Division
Difai Agsu3
Shimal1
L
07.02.26First Division
Shimal0
Mingachevir3
L
24.12.25First Division
Sabail3
Shimal4
W
๐Ÿ“
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 16th April 2026, Sabail host Shimal in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Sabail to win as the standout selection.

Sabail arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Shimal are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 1D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Sabail, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Shimal's 1, with 1 draws from 2 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: sabail to win at odds of 1.21 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Azerbaijan 1 Liqa match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.21. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Sabail vs Shimal?
Our selection is 1 โ€” Sabail to win, priced at approximately 1.21. Tip confidence rating: 38%.
What is Sabail's current form?
Sabail have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shimal been performing recently?
Shimal have recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Sabail lead with 0 wins versus Shimal's 1, with 1 draws across 2 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
โš ๏ธ
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