M
Montana
Home
D
W
L
D
L
1W 5D 4L
→ Steady
VS
—
4:30 pm
—
Ogosta Stadium (Montana)
N
Nesebar
Away
L
D
D
W
W
1W 5D 4L
→ Steady
Montana
50%
Draw
30%
Nesebar
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
76.3%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-34.3%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Montana to win
1.31
Under 2.5 Goals75%
BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Montana vs Nesebar
Competition: Bulgaria Vtora League
Date: Tuesday, 4th August 2026
KO: 4:30 pm
Pick: 1 (Montana to win)
Odds: 1.31
Confidence: 42%
Also: Under 2.5 Goals (75%)
Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
4
Montana
1
Draws
1
Nesebar
6
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
83%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Montana won 4 of the last 6 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Montana
Metric
Nesebar
1.3
Goals For / Game
0
2.1
Goals Against / Game
0
0%
Clean Sheets
0%
1-5-4
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
1.7
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
M0
0-0
18.3%
0-1
19.2%
0-2
10.1%
0-3
3.5%
0-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
M1
1-0
11.9%
1-1
12.5%
1-2
6.6%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.6%
1-5
0.1%
M2
2-0
3.9%
2-1
4.1%
2-2
2.1%
2-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
2-5
0.0%
M3
3-0
0.8%
3-1
0.9%
3-2
0.5%
3-3
0.2%
3-4
0.0%
3-5
0.0%
M4
4-0
0.1%
4-1
0.1%
4-2
0.1%
4-3
0.0%
4-4
0.0%
4-5
0.0%
M5
5-0
0.0%
5-1
0.0%
5-2
0.0%
5-3
0.0%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(11.9%)
2-1(4.1%)
2-0(3.9%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
M=Home goals ↓ N=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Montana Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Nesebar Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
5%
Home Win & BTTS No
9%
Draw & BTTS Yes
25%
Draw & BTTS No
46%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
5%
Away Win & BTTS No
10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
4%
Home Win & Under 2.5
11%
Draw & Over 2.5
18%
Draw & Under 2.5
53%
Away Win & Over 2.5
4%
Away Win & Under 2.5
11%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Nesebar1
Montana3
Montana2
Nesebar0
Nesebar1
Montana2
Montana3
Nesebar1
Nesebar1
Montana1
Montana1
Nesebar3
Recent Form
Montana
Svoge2
Montana2
Montana3
Spartak Pleven1
Slavia Sofia7
Montana2
CSKA Sofia II1
Montana1
Slavia Sofia2
Montana0
Montana0
Spartak Varna2
Botev Vratsa1
Montana0
Montana2
Lok. Sofia2
Beroe2
Montana2
Septemvri Sofia1
Montana1
Nesebar
Svoge2
Montana2
Montana3
Spartak Pleven1
Slavia Sofia7
Montana2
CSKA Sofia II1
Montana1
Slavia Sofia2
Montana0
Montana0
Spartak Varna2
Botev Vratsa1
Montana0
Montana2
Lok. Sofia2
Beroe2
Montana2
Septemvri Sofia1
Montana1
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 4th August 2026, Montana host Nesebar at Ogosta Stadium (Montana) in Bulgaria Vtora League. We recommend Montana to win as the standout selection.
Montana arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Nesebar are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 5D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Montana, who lead the head-to-head with 4 wins to Nesebar's 1, with 1 draws from 6 encounters. Both teams have scored in 83% of those meetings.
Our verdict: montana to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Bulgaria Vtora League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.31, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 4:30 pm over at Ogosta Stadium (Montana).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Montana vs Nesebar?
Our selection is 1 — Montana to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 42%.
What is Montana's current form?
Montana have won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nesebar been performing recently?
Nesebar have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Montana lead with 4 wins versus Nesebar's 1, with 1 draws across 6 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 83%.
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