P
Pakhtakor
Home
D
D
D
W
W
6W 3D 1L
▼ Declining
VS
—
4:00 pm
—
Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent)
X
Xorazm Urganch
Away
L
L
D
L
W
2W 4D 4L
→ Steady
Pakhtakor
50%
Draw
30%
Xorazm Urganch
20%
H Fair Odds
2
D Fair Odds
3.33
A Fair Odds
5
Implied Prob
73%
Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge
-10%
Overpriced
Kelly %
0%
Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
Pakhtakor
1
Draws
0
Xorazm Urganch
9
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
44%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip
Pakhtakor won 8 of the last 9 meetings (1 draws).
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pakhtakor
Metric
Xorazm Urganch
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
X0
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
P0
0-0
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
3.4%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.3%
0-5
0.1%
P1
1-0
12.3%
1-1
11.6%
1-2
5.5%
1-3
1.8%
1-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
P2
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-2
4.6%
2-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
P3
3-0
5.6%
3-1
5.3%
3-2
2.5%
3-3
0.8%
3-4
0.2%
3-5
0.0%
P4
4-0
2.3%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.0%
4-3
0.3%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
P5
5-0
0.8%
5-1
0.7%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.1%
5-4
0.0%
5-5
0.0%
Top Scores
1-0(12.3%)
2-0(10.1%)
2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match
■ Possible
■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip
P=Home goals ↓ X=Away →
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Pakhtakor Win
2
50%
Draw
3.33
30%
Xorazm Urganch Win
5
20%
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
Team Ratings
Grades
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes
31%
Home Win & BTTS No
21%
Draw & BTTS Yes
18%
Draw & BTTS No
12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes
11%
Away Win & BTTS No
7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5
23%
Home Win & Under 2.5
29%
Draw & Over 2.5
14%
Draw & Under 2.5
17%
Away Win & Over 2.5
8%
Away Win & Under 2.5
10%
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor1
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch1
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor4
Pakhtakor3
Xorazm Urganch0
Xorazm Urganch0
Pakhtakor1
Pakhtakor2
Xorazm Urganch0
Xorazm Urganch1
Pakhtakor1
Xorazm Urganch1
Pakhtakor9
Pakhtakor1
Xorazm Urganch0
Recent Form
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
Termez Surkhon1
Pakhtakor1
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
Buxoro0
Pakhtakor1
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
Neftchi Fargona0
Pakhtakor1
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
Sogdiana2
Pakhtakor4
Neftchi Fargona1
Pakhtakor0
Xorazm Urganch
Sogdiana2
Xorazm Urganch0
Xorazm Urganch0
Andijan3
Qizilqum0
Xorazm Urganch0
Xorazm Urganch0
Neftchi Fargona2
Mashal Muborak0
Xorazm Urganch1
Xorazm Urganch2
Kokand 19122
Lok. Tashkent1
Xorazm Urganch1
Xorazm Urganch2
Din. Samarkand1
Xorazm Urganch1
Bunyodkor2
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch1
Pakhtakor (Home)
Pakhtakor1
Lok. Tashkent1
Pakhtakor2
Nasaf Qarshi2
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
Pakhtakor0
Navbahor Namangan2
Pakhtakor2
Qizilqum0
Pakhtakor3
Spaeri4
Pakhtakor1
Struga1
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi0
Xorazm Urganch (Away)
Sogdiana2
Xorazm Urganch0
Qizilqum0
Xorazm Urganch0
Mashal Muborak0
Xorazm Urganch1
Lok. Tashkent1
Xorazm Urganch1
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch1
Nasaf Qarshi1
Xorazm Urganch0
Pribram1
Xorazm Urganch1
Buxoro1
Xorazm Urganch2
Andijan3
Xorazm Urganch2
Match Analysis
Writeup
On Tuesday, 21st July 2026, Pakhtakor host Xorazm Urganch at Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent) in Uzbekistan Super League. We recommend Pakhtakor to win as the standout selection.
Pakhtakor arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.
Xorazm Urganch are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.
Historical meetings favour Pakhtakor, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Xorazm Urganch's 0, with 1 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 33% of those meetings.
Our verdict: pakhtakor to win at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.
Let me be honest with you about how this Uzbekistan Super League match looks once you strip away the noise. The pundits will give you a narrative. We are going to give you the evidence and let you decide whether it adds up.
The home team rolls in on 2 wins, 3 draws from their last 5 games. Now, plenty of people will see that and stop reading, which is exactly the mistake the bookmakers are counting on. A recent run only means something when you understand why it happened. Were the wins built on solid defending and clinical finishing, or did they ride their luck and survive a couple of scares? Five matches is enough of a sample to spot the difference, and the difference is where the money is.
Across from them, the away side brings 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games on their travels. Road form is the great separator in this sport. A team that knows how to grind out a result in someone else’s backyard is worth a completely different price than one that folds the moment things get uncomfortable. We have watched closely for which of those two this lot resembles right now.
Put the home and away pictures side by side and the value reveals itself. The bookies have set their line; we think it is a touch off. Our angle is 1 at @1.37, sitting at roughly 50,30,20% in our model. The match gets going at 4:00 pm over at Pakhtakor Central Stadium (Tashkent).
That is the read. Take it, leave it, or fold it into a slip with our other tips today — but at least now you know the reasoning behind it.
Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pakhtakor vs Xorazm Urganch?
Our selection is 1 — Pakhtakor to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Pakhtakor's current form?
Pakhtakor have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Xorazm Urganch been performing recently?
Xorazm Urganch have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pakhtakor lead with 8 wins versus Xorazm Urganch's 0, with 1 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
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