WON Tip WON RB Leipzig 2-1 Pauli
R

RB Leipzig

Home
L W W W W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
2-1
P
Pauli
Away
L L D L D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Saturday, 9th May 2026
1
Backing RB Leipzig to win
RB Leipzig 50%
Draw 30%
Pauli 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -23.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — RB Leipzig to win
1.31
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
RB Leipzig vs Pauli Competition: Bundesliga Date: Saturday, 9th May 2026 Pick: 1 (RB Leipzig to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
3
Pauli
8
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
38%
BTTS
25%
Over 2.5
Against Tip RB Leipzig won 3 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
RB Leipzig
Metric
Pauli
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
R0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
R1
1-0 11.3%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.3%) 2-0(10.4%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
RB Leipzig Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Pauli Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
RB Leipzig
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.0
Defence
6.0
Pauli
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.01.26BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig1
09.02.25BUN
RB Leipzig2
St. Pauli0
29.10.24POK
RB Leipzig4
St. Pauli2
22.09.24BUN
St. Pauli0
RB Leipzig0
12.02.162BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig0
23.08.152BUN
RB Leipzig0
St. Pauli1
03.05.152BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig0
23.11.142BUN
RB Leipzig4
St. Pauli1
Recent Form
RB Leipzig
02.05.26BUN
Bayer Leverkusen4
RB Leipzig1
L
24.04.26BUN
RB Leipzig3
Union Berlin1
W
18.04.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt1
RB Leipzig3
W
11.04.26BUN
RB Leipzig1
B. Monchengladbach0
W
04.04.26BUN
Werder Bremen1
RB Leipzig2
W
20.03.26BUN
RB Leipzig5
Hoffenheim0
W
15.03.26BUN
Stuttgart1
RB Leipzig0
L
07.03.26BUN
RB Leipzig2
Augsburg1
W
01.03.26BUN
Hamburger SV1
RB Leipzig2
W
21.02.26BUN
RB Leipzig2
Dortmund2
D
Pauli
03.05.26BUN
St. Pauli1
Mainz2
L
25.04.26BUN
Heidenheim2
St. Pauli0
L
17.04.26BUN
St. Pauli1
FC Koln1
D
11.04.26BUN
St. Pauli0
Bayern Munich5
L
05.04.26BUN
Union Berlin1
St. Pauli1
D
22.03.26BUN
St. Pauli1
Freiburg2
L
13.03.26BUN
B. Monchengladbach2
St. Pauli0
L
08.03.26BUN
St. Pauli0
Eintracht Frankfurt0
D
28.02.26BUN
Hoffenheim0
St. Pauli1
W
22.02.26BUN
St. Pauli2
Werder Bremen1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 9th May 2026, RB Leipzig host Pauli in Bundesliga. We recommend RB Leipzig to win as the standout selection.

RB Leipzig arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Pauli are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour RB Leipzig, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Pauli's 3, with 2 draws from 8 encounters. Both teams have scored in 38% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rb leipzig to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Betting on football gets a whole lot easier when you stop listening to your gut and start paying attention to what the numbers are actually saying. This upcoming Bundesliga match is the perfect excuse to tune out the noise, forget about which club you normally root for, and just dig into the hard facts. We always begin by checking out the home team.

Sure, their overall record for the season dictates the early betting lines, but that only tells half the story. The real secret to finding a good bet is looking closely at their most recent games. That recent action tells us everything we need to know about how well they are attacking and whether their defense is holding up under pressure right now.

Then, you have to give the away team the exact same level of attention. You need to take a step back, look at how they have played across the entire season, and compare that to their performances over the last couple of weeks. Doing this helps you spot situations where the bookies might have priced them completely wrong.

On top of all that, history matters heavily in these matchups. Past meetings between these specific clubs often reveal hidden patterns and playing styles that basic stats just completely miss. When you combine those past head-to-head results with how both sides are playing today, you get a really clear picture of how the 90 minutes will unfold.

Taking all of this into account, the smartest move here is backing 1, especially with the fantastic value sitting at @1.31. Once the game gets underway, all we can do is sit back, watch the action, and let the final score show if our math was right on the money. Check out our other daily tips for more smart bets.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RB Leipzig vs Pauli?
Our selection is 1 — RB Leipzig to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is RB Leipzig's current form?
RB Leipzig have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pauli been performing recently?
Pauli have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RB Leipzig lead with 3 wins versus Pauli's 3, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 38%.
⚠️
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